An Analysis of Municipal Budget Variances

Abstract

The objective of this research was to determine the extent to which municipal budget variances are systematically biased, the direction of any biases, and the relationship between the biases and various political, economic, demographic and organisational factors. We compared budgeted and actual revenues and expenditures for 125 of the largest US cities and developed regression models to explain the magnitude of differences. Our results indicate that budget variances are decidedly conservative and are most significantly influenced by the extent of political competition and the percentage of funding from inter‐governmental grants. Inasmuch as unreliable budget estimates can thwart the political process, our findings suggest that there may be a need for both citizens and legislative bodies to review more thoroughly the budgets presented to them by city officials.

The influence of transparency on budget forecast deviations in municipal governments

“…Another usual practice is to make overoptimistic or pessimistic projections of budget variables Chatagny & Soguel, 2012;Goeminne, Geys, & Smolders, 2008;Mayper et al, 1991). Another usual practice is to make overoptimistic or pessimistic projections of budget variables Chatagny & Soguel, 2012;Goeminne, Geys, & Smolders, 2008;Mayper et al, 1991).…”

Bukti Empiris Tentang Pengaruh Budget Ratcheting Terhadap Hubungan Antara Pendapatan Sendiri Dan Belanja Daerah Pada Kabupaten/Kota Di Aceh

“…Oleh karena melibatkan banyak pihak (budget actors) (Rubin, 1993), penganggaran MODUS Vol. 28 (2), 2016 menjadi proses yang sangat dinamis, sehingga memiliki kecenderungan terjadinya bias (Larkey & Smith, 1989;Jones & Euske, 1991), varians anggaran (Mayper, 1991) dan masalah keagenan (Abdullah, 2012;Smith & Bertozzi, 1998;Forrester, 2001;Fozzard, 2001).…”

“…Pada kenyataannya, keputusan atas target pendapatan dan belanja dibuat atas dasar asumsi-asumsi tertentu, sehingga sering bias (Larkey & Smith, 1989) dan secara stratejik sering dimanipulasi ( Jones & Euske 1991). Akibatnya, sering terjadi varian yang cukup besar antara anggaran dengan realisasinya (Smith & Bertozzi, 1998;Mayper, et al, 1991). Pada Tabel 2 terlihat bahwa koefisien regresi untuk variabel pemoderasi PAD*BR adalah sebesar 0,0000002491, signifikan pada level α=5%, yang berarti BR mempunyai efek moderasi terhadap hubungan antara PAD dan BD.…”

Pengaruh Anggaran Partisipatif Dan Kapasitas Individu Terhadap Senjangan Anggaran Dan Kinerja Aparatur Pemerintah (Studi Empiris Pada Pemerintah Propinsi Jawa Timur)

“…Senjangan anggaran dapat diindikasikan dengan varians realisasi anggaran. Varians antara anggaran dan realisasi anggaran mengindikasikan senjangan anggaran (Mayper, et al, 1991: 29 dan Abdullah, dkk, 2011.…”