An algorithmic framework for investigating the temporal relationship of magnetic field pulses and earthquakes applied to California

Kappler, K. N.; Schneider, Daniel D.; MacLean, Laura; Bleier, Thomas; Lemon, J.

doi:10.1016/j.cageo.2019.104317

Cited by 21 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…They are 0.625 and 0.658 for the two operating points in Figure 4 of Reference [ 57 ] and 0.869 and 0.943 for the the two operating points shown in Figure 8a,b of Reference [ 57 ], respectively. These four AUC exceed the one shown in Figure 11 of Reference [ 59 ] which has been calculated for the relationship between magnetic field pulses and EQs in California.…”

Section: Receiver Operating Characteristics Techniquecontrasting

confidence: 68%

Natural Time Analysis: The Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve of the Order Parameter Fluctuations Minima Preceding Major Earthquakes

Sarlis

Skordas

Christopoulos

et al. 2020

Entropy

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It has been reported that major earthquakes are preceded by Seismic Electric Signals (SES). Observations show that in the natural time analysis of an earthquake (EQ) catalog, an SES activity starts when the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity exhibit a minimum. Fifteen distinct minima—observed simultaneously at two different natural time scales and deeper than a certain threshold—are found on analyzing the seismicity of Japan from 1 January 1984 to 11 March 2011 (the time of the M9 Tohoku EQ occurrence) 1 to 3 months before large EQs. Six (out of 15) of these minima preceded all shallow EQs of magnitude 7.6 or larger, while nine are followed by smaller EQs. The latter false positives can be excluded by a proper procedure (J. Geophys. Res. Space Physics 2014, 119, 9192–9206) that considers aspects of EQ networks based on similar activity patterns. These results are studied here by means of the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) technique by focusing on the area under the ROC curve (AUC). If this area, which is currently considered an effective way to summarize the overall diagnostic accuracy of a test, has the value 1, it corresponds to a perfectly accurate test. Here, we find that the AUC is around 0.95 which is evaluated as outstanding.

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Section: Receiver Operating Characteristics Techniquecontrasting

confidence: 68%

Natural Time Analysis: The Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve of the Order Parameter Fluctuations Minima Preceding Major Earthquakes

Sarlis

Skordas

Christopoulos

et al. 2020

Entropy

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“…The measurement of ultra-low-frequency (ULF: less than one Hertz) electromagnetic phenomena may be one of the most promising candidates, because of their deeper skin depths [ 1 , 2 , 8 , 17 ]. To date, a large number of ULF electromagnetic phenomena associated with earthquakes has been reported from different parts of the world, e.g., Greece [ 18 , 19 , 20 , 21 , 22 , 23 ], Italy [ 24 , 25 ], Russia [ 26 , 27 ]; America [ 28 , 29 , 30 ], Mexico [ 31 , 32 , 33 , 34 ], Taiwan [ 35 , 36 , 37 , 38 ], Indonesia [ 39 , 40 ], China [ 41 , 42 , 43 , 44 , 45 , 46 , 47 ] and Japan [ 48 , 49 , 50 , 51 , 52 , 53 , 54 , 55 , 56 , 57 , 58 , 59 , 60 ]. Furthermore, experiments and simulations have confirmed the existence of ULF seismo-electromagnetic phenomena [ 61 , 62 , 63 , 64 , ...…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Potential Earthquake Precursory Information in ULF Magnetic Data Recorded in Kanto, Japan during 2000–2010: Distance and Magnitude Dependences

Han

Zhuang

Hattori

et al. 2020

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In order to clarify ultra-low-frequency (ULF) seismomagnetic phenomena, a sensitive geomagnetic network was installed in Kanto, Japan since 2000. In previous studies, we have verified the correlation between ULF magnetic anomalies and local sizeable earthquakes. In this study, we use Molchan’s error diagram to evaluate the potential earthquake precursory information in the magnetic data recorded in Kanto, Japan during 2000–2010. We introduce the probability gain (PG′) and the probability difference (D′) to quantify the forecasting performance and to explore the optimal prediction parameters for a given ULF magnetic station. The results show that the earthquake predictions based on magnetic anomalies are significantly better than random guesses, indicating the magnetic data contain potential useful precursory information. Further investigations suggest that the prediction performance depends on the choices of the distance (R) and size of the target earthquake events (Es). Optimal R and Es are about (100 km, 108.75) and (180 km, 108.75) for Seikoshi (SKS) station in Izu and Kiyosumi (KYS) station in Boso, respectively.

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“…We concur that the remote reference should ideally be located in a seismically quiet area but once again note that choices of magnetic observatories are limited given the current deployment and that KNY therefore seems to be a reasonable reference for this study. We think that using a dedicated array of sensors such as the QuakeFinder array described in Kappler et al (2019) might provide more flexibility in terms of remote reference location and might even allow implementation of data processing schemes using multiple references at once.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Within this context, studying multiple earthquakes at once seems like a sound approach as this could help outline the temporal characteristics of the alleged precursors (Kappler et al, 2019). This path is followed by Han et al (2014), who perform a statistical epoch analysis (SEA) of ULF phenomena by processing 10 years of data acquired at the Japanese geomagnetic observatory of Kakioka (KAK) between 1 January 2001 and 31 December 2010.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical Analysis of Pre‐earthquake Electromagnetic Anomalies in the ULF Range

et al. 2020

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Assessing the statistical significance of electromagnetic anomalies in the ultralow frequency (ULF) range observed prior to earthquakes is a necessary step toward determining whether these perturbations constitute actual earthquake precursors. A statistical epoch analysis (SEA) was recently performed by Han et al. (2014, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JA019789) to analyze earthquakes happening between 2001 and 2010 near the geomagnetic observatory of Kakioka, Japan; the authors found a significant number of anomalies 6 to 15 days prior to the earthquake day within 100 km from Kakioka, while no significant pre-earthquake activity was observed for the farther region 100 to 216 km from the observatory. In this current paper, we describe the application of our independent software implementation of their method. Despite using a different outlier rejection scheme, we manage to approximate their results. Upon validation of our program, we conduct multiple sensitivity studies. First, we explore how different outlier rejection schemes impact the results. We then restrict the analysis to only mantle earthquakes, highlighting a marginally significant number of anomalies prior to the earthquake day. Next, we test a higher band-pass filter than the one initially used but find no anomalous pre-earthquake activity in this higher-frequency band. We then use a different catalog to establish the list of qualifying "earthquake days" which also leads the anomalous pre-earthquake episode to vanish, thus raising concerns about the robustness of the results. Finally, we apply the SEA to another time window, ranging from 2013 to 2018: No significant pre-earthquake episode can be observed for this interval. We conclude our study by providing guidelines for upcoming work.

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An algorithmic framework for investigating the temporal relationship of magnetic field pulses and earthquakes applied to California

Cited by 21 publications

References 20 publications

Natural Time Analysis: The Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve of the Order Parameter Fluctuations Minima Preceding Major Earthquakes

Natural Time Analysis: The Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve of the Order Parameter Fluctuations Minima Preceding Major Earthquakes

Assessing the Potential Earthquake Precursory Information in ULF Magnetic Data Recorded in Kanto, Japan during 2000–2010: Distance and Magnitude Dependences

Statistical Analysis of Pre‐earthquake Electromagnetic Anomalies in the ULF Range

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