Agriculture in West Africa in the Twenty-First Century: Climate Change and Impacts Scenarios, and Potential for Adaptation

Abstract

West Africa is known to be particularly vulnerable to climate change due to high climate variability, high reliance on rain-fed agriculture, and limited economic and institutional capacity to respond to climate variability and change. In this context, better knowledge of how climate will change in West Africa and how such changes will impact crop productivity is crucial to inform policies that may counteract the adverse effects. This review paper provides a comprehensive overview of climate change impacts on agriculture in West Africa based on the recent scientific literature. West Africa is nowadays experiencing a rapid climate change, characterized by a widespread warming, a recovery of the monsoonal precipitation, and an increase in the occurrence of climate extremes. The observed climate tendencies are also projected to continue in the twenty-first century under moderate and high emission scenarios, although large uncertainties still affect simulations of the future West African climate, especially regarding the summer precipitation. However, despite diverging future projections of the monsoonal rainfall, which is essential for rain-fed agriculture, a robust evidence of yield loss in West Africa emerges. This yield loss is mainly driven by increased mean temperature while potential wetter or drier conditions as well as elevated CO2 concentrations can modulate this effect. Potential for adaptation is illustrated for major crops in West Africa through a selection of studies based on process-based crop models to adjust cropping systems (change in varieties, sowing dates and density, irrigation, fertilizer management) to future climate. Results of the cited studies are crop and region specific and no clear conclusions can be made regarding the most effective adaptation options. Further efforts are needed to improve modeling of the monsoon system and to better quantify the uncertainty in its changes under a warmer climate, in the response of the crops to such changes and in the potential for adaptation.

Analyzing Regional Climate Change in Africa in a 1.5, 2, and 3°C Global Warming World

“…Therefore, these rainfall and temperature indices are relevant to the agriculture sector (e.g., Crookes et al, 2017;El Chami & El Moujabber, 2016;Msowoya et al, 2016;Sultan & Gaetani, 2016). Moreover, the annual HWD and HW have also an impact on the prosperity of crops.…”

Projected Heat Stress Under 1.5 °C and 2 °C Global Warming Scenarios Creates Unprecedented Discomfort for Humans in West Africa

“…As a result, hot extremes will become more common and deadly in many regions across the world (Gasparrini et al, 2017;Im et al, 2017;Lee & Kim, 2016;Mora et al, 2017) and in tropical Africa (Giorgi et al, 2014;Liu et al, 2017;Russo et al, 2014), with their frequency, duration, and magnitude depending on the underlying forcing scenario (Anderson et al, 2018;Dosio, 2017;Linares et al, 2014;Russo et al, 2016). Such hot extremes can have widespread impacts on human and natural systems, thereby challenging the adaptive capacity and resilience of local populations and activities (Ceccherini et al, 2017;Fontaine et al, 2013;Pal & Eltahir, 2016;Sultan & Gaetani, 2016;Zougmoré et al, 2016).…”

Modelling blue and green water availability under climate change in the Beninese Basin of the Niger River Basin, West Africa

“…West Africa is one of the most exposed and vulnerable regions to the adverse effects of climate change (IPCC, , , Niasse, Afouda, & Amani, ). The economy of this region is mainly based on rainfed agriculture, and any change in the climate regime would directly affect the income at the country level as well as the livelihood of local populations (Läderach, Martinez‐Valle, Schroth, & Castro, ; Schroth, Läderach, Martinez‐Valle, Bunn, & Jassogne, ; Sultan & Gaetani, ). The high sensitivity of the West African region to climate hazards is illustrated by the severe consequences of the drought of the 1970s and 1980s (Amogu et al, ; Badou, Kapangaziwiri, Diekkrüger, Hounkpè, & Afouda, ; Lebel et al, ) and the floods at the end of the 2000s and the beginning of the 2010s (Aich et al, ; Descroix et al, ) on agricultural production and livelihoods of local population (Bonou, ; Hounkpè, Diekkrüger, Badou, & Afouda, ; Liersch et al, ).…”