Journal of the American Statistical Association volume 81, issue 394, P452-460 1986 DOI: 10.1080/01621459.1986.10478290 View full text
Philip J. Brown, Clive D. Payne

Abstract: Voting data typically comprise the marginal distributions of votes cast at two successive elections. The fact that these obtain separately for many voting precincts or areas enables one to estimate the actual transition probabilities for movements between the options available to the voter at each election. An aggregated compound multinomial model is proposed. This allows log-linear dependence on various covariates and specifies a simple and illuminating structure of random effects. The information in such ag…

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