Agent-Based Modeling of the Hajj Rituals with the Possible Spread of COVID-19

Al-Shaery, A.; Hejase, Bilal; Tridane, Abdessamad; Farooqi, Norah; Jassmi, Hamad Al

doi:10.3390/su13126923

Cited by 19 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, health authorities in Saudi Arabia were prepared for any potential spread of infectious diseases associated with mass gatherings (e.g., Hajj season) [43]. The coinciding of COVID-19 with the Hajj season is an extra indication of the insights and benefits that DHTPs can provide, such as predicting the progression and the effects of COVID-19 during the Hajj season via mathematical modelling and machine learning.…”

Section: Dhtps and Hajj Seasonmentioning

confidence: 99%

Digital Health Platforms in Saudi Arabia: Determinants from the COVID-19 Pandemic Experience

et al. 2021

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COVID-19 poses a significant burden to healthcare systems. Healthcare organisations with better health innovation infrastructures have faced a reduced burden and achieved success in curbing COVID-19. In Saudi Arabia, digital technologies have played a vital role in fighting SARS-CoV-2 transmission. In this paper, we aimed to summarise the experience of optimising digital health technologies in Saudi Arabia as well as to discuss capabilities and opportunities during and beyond the COVID-19 pandemic. A literature search was conducted up to September 2021 to document the experience of using DHTPs in Saudi Arabia in response to the COVID-19 outbreak. We also considered any published data, press briefings, and announcements by the MOH in Saudi Arabia. The findings were synthesised in narrative form. Health officials succeeded in optimising and maintaining a strategy to mitigate the spread of the virus via different digital technologies, such as mobile health applications, artificial intelligence, and machine learning. The quick digital response in Saudi Arabia was facilitated by governmental support and by considering users and technology determinants. Future research must concentrate on establishing and updating the guidelines for using DHTPs.

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Section: Dhtps and Hajj Seasonmentioning

confidence: 99%

Digital Health Platforms in Saudi Arabia: Determinants from the COVID-19 Pandemic Experience

et al. 2021

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“…All state variables are normalized in the range of 0 to 1. Furthermore, we define a minimum ritual capacity of 5% based on the recommendations in the unvaccinated case 16 and to avoid trivial solutions (0% capacity).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Tools for assessing effective control strategies are essential for determining the right combination of measures 15 . Agent-based models (ABM) have been proposed to study the effect of control measures such as face masks, screening, and population control 16 . These models have also been used to estimate risky contacts and study the effect of physical distancing measures on the Hajj pilgrims during the rituals 17 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating COVID-19 control measures in mass gathering events with vaccine inequalities

Al-Shaery

Hejase

Tridane

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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With the increasing global adoption of COVID-19 vaccines, limitations on mass gathering events have started to gradually loosen. However, the large vaccine inequality recorded among different countries is an important aspect that policymakers must address when implementing control measures for such events. In this paper, we propose a model for the assessment of different control measures with the consideration of vaccine inequality in the population. Two control measures are considered: selecting participants based on vaccine efficacy and restricting the event capacity. We build the model using agent-based modeling to capture the spatiotemporal crowd dynamics and utilize a genetic algorithm to assess the control strategies. This assessment is based on factors that are important for policymakers such as disease prevalence, vaccine diversity, and event capacity. A quantitative evaluation of vaccine diversity using the Simpson’s Diversity Index is also provided. The Hajj ritual is used as a case study. We show that strategies that prioritized lowering the prevalence resulted in low event capacity but facilitated vaccine diversity. Moreover, strategies that prioritized diversity resulted in high infection rates. However, increasing the prioritization of participants with high vaccine efficacy significantly decreased the disease prevalence. Strategies that prioritized ritual capacity did not show clear trends.

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“…Speed and travel time in Ziara [12] COVID spreading Agent-based Spread of infection during Tawaf and Ramy al-Jamarat [13] Crowd modeling Discrete event…”

Section: Agent-based and Regression Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, the study in [10] surveys digital solutions for Hajj crowd management while [11] presents a simulationbased analysis for flow control and crowd monitoring in Ziara. The study in [12] presents agent-based modeling on the possible spreading of COVID-19 during Hajj Rituals. Another study models crowd through discrete event simulation covering Tawaf and Sayee Rituals during Hajj [13].…”

Section: Agent-based and Regression Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Crowd Evacuation in Hajj Stoning Area: Planning through Modeling and Simulation

et al. 2022

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Pilgrimage is one of the largest mass gatherings, where millions of Muslims gather annually from all over the world to perform Hajj. The stoning ritual during Hajj has been historically vulnerable to serious disasters that often cause severe impacts ranging from injuries to death tolls. In efforts to minimize the number and extent of the disasters, the stoning area has been expanded recently. However, no research has been carried out to study the evacuation effectiveness of the current exit placements in the area, which lies at the heart of effective minimization of the number and extent of the disasters. Therefore, this paper presents an in-depth study on emergency evacuation planning for the extended stoning area. It presents a simulation model of the expanded stoning area with the current exit placement. In addition, we suggested and examined four different exit placements considering evacuation scenarios in case of no hazard as well as two realistic hazard scenarios covering fire and bomb hazards. The simulation studied three stoning phases, beginning of stoning, during the peak hour of stoning, and ending of stoning at three scales of population sizes. The performance was measured in the light of evacuation time, percentage of evacuees, and percentage of crowd at each exit. The experimental results revealed that the current exits are not optimally positioned, and evacuation can be significantly improved through introducing a few more exits, or even through changing positions of the current ones.

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Agent-Based Modeling of the Hajj Rituals with the Possible Spread of COVID-19

Cited by 19 publications

References 34 publications

Digital Health Platforms in Saudi Arabia: Determinants from the COVID-19 Pandemic Experience

Digital Health Platforms in Saudi Arabia: Determinants from the COVID-19 Pandemic Experience

Evaluating COVID-19 control measures in mass gathering events with vaccine inequalities

Crowd Evacuation in Hajj Stoning Area: Planning through Modeling and Simulation

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