Age-period-cohort analysis of trends in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis incidence

Abstract

Article:Tobin, K, Gilthorpe, MS orcid.org/0000-0001-8783-7695, Rooney, J et al. (4 more authors) (2016) Age-period-cohort analysis of trends in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis incidence. Journal of Neurology, 263 (10). pp. 1919-1926 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00415-016-8215-z © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. This is an author produced version of a paper published in Journal of Neurology. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy.The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00415-016-8215-z eprints@whiterose.ac.uk https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/ Reuse Unless indicated otherwise, fulltext items are protected by copyright with all rights reserved. The copyright exception in section 29 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 allows the making of a single copy solely for the purpose of non-commercial research or private study within the limits of fair dealing. The publisher or other rights-holder may allow further reproduction and re-use of this version -refer to the White Rose Research Online record for this item. Where records identify the publisher as the copyright holder, users can verify any specific terms of use on the publisher's website. TakedownIf you consider content in White Rose Research Online to be in breach of UK law, please notify us by emailing eprints@whiterose.ac.uk including the URL of the record and the reason for the withdrawal request.

Controlled population-based comparative study of USA and international adult [55-74] neurological deaths 1989-2014

“…Moreover, compared with the earlier analyses between 1989 and 2010 where there were notable rises in males in six countries and in four countries for females, by 2014 there had been rises of equivalent to >10% in twelve countries for men and in eleven countries for females. A Gompertzian perspective also ignores rises in early onset dementia (EOD) reported in many countries 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 19, 20, 22, 25. For example, one found 29% of their cohort were aged under 65 years, which 30 years before would have been considered extraordinary 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 19, 20, 22, 25.…”

“…This was followed‐up in a second international study taking the results to 2010. The latter analysis used the later baseline years of 1989‐91, which confirmed the earlier onset of neurological morbidity and that neurological deaths continued to increase in the majority of the countries reviewed 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12. Rises in USA the over‐75s neurological deaths were considerable as the USA had significantly greater increases than fourteen of the other twenty nations, with threefold rises in American men and a fivefold increase in women in just 21 years 8.…”

“…Only country‐specific research could resolve this latter problem. The issue of reliability of diagnosis can be significant,14 but is largely resolved at the point of death in a global category such as “nervous disease deaths” 1, 5, 6, 7, 8. It is acknowledged that 100% accuracy can never be established, but as the WHO data are collected in a consistent and uniform system in these broad categories this is probably the most reliable and valid international data as yet available.…”

“…The accumulation of evidence has continued to build in this century 5, 6, 7, 8. The first international comparison of the changing neurological mortality was between 1979‐1981 and 1995‐1997 in twenty‐one developed countries found that the dementias were starting a decade earlier in a number of nations 5, 7.…”

“…However, the diagnostic issue has limited impact as it is mortality rates that are measured not separate diagnostic categories, and at this point, there is little evidence of diagnostic uncertainty as the primary cause of death is categorized as being due to a neurological condition 1, 5, 6, 7, 8. Moreover, the Gompertzian position appears to have ignored the marked changes between the sexes and in different countries 1, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11. Crucially, the Gompertzian hypothesis does not account for the substantial rise in early onset dementia reported in many Western countries 12, 13, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22…”