Adverse weather conditions for UK wheat production under climate change

The Development of Winter Wheat Yield and Quality under Different Fertilizer Regimes and Soil-Climatic Conditions in the Czech Republic

“…From this point of view, it is unlikely that, in Lukavec and other localities with comparable soil-climatic conditions, we will achieve a harvest of high-quality grain, at least via the fertilization. However, this could change with upcoming weather changes, as is expected for example in the UK [41], or generally in Europe [42].The direction of such changes can be seen in the results from Lukavec from 2018. This season was dry in Ivanovice and Caslav, with relatively low yields and high quality.…”

Changing times: Opportunities for altering winter wheat phenology

“…This was exacerbated in the most recent drill season (autumn 2019) by a very wet autumn that further limited feasible drilling days, thereby reducing both wheat and winter barley (−17% and −23% compared to the previous year; AHDB, 2020b). Harkness et al (2020) also recently showed (via modeling) that the probability of extremely wet conditions early in the growing season is likely to substantially increase F I G U R E 3 Analysis of the AHDB Recommended List (RL) gives insight into phenology in UK wheat varieties. (a) Winter wheat varieties available on the RL show a reduction in the number of earlier flowering varieties over the last decade (2010/2011 to 2019/2020) as well as a reduction in the range of flowering times available.…”

“…It was also acknowledged that the risk of frost increases markedly in the north, one region which could otherwise benefit significantly from earlier flowering (see Section 3.2). Martino and Abbate 2019 Trnka et al, (2014) showed that severe frost risk is extremely low with more recent work from Harkness et al (2020) also reporting that future risks of late frosts leading to medium to severe yield losses across the UK's wheat growing area are negligible. With these current models, it appears that frost may not pose a major risk to early-flowering varieties in the future but, as with any approach, this will require reconsideration as new data becomes available.…”

“…Examples of adverse conditions caused by climate change that may affect wheat productivity in the UK include drought stress, water logging, and adverse conditions at sowing and harvesting (Harkness et al, 2020;Trnka et al, 2014). Given that 40% of UK arable land area is cropped to wheat (DEFRA, 2018), this is likely to have a major impact on both primary production and food supply.…”

“…For instance, in South-East Anglia on sandy or gravelly soils, farmers tend not to grow wheat at all (on land that is informally characterized as "not being a wheat soil") and will rather grow barley which matures earlier. Therefore, earlier flowering varieties could be employed with success on intermediate soil types as a strategy to increase the area available for wheat cultivation.Reports in literature based on climate projections suggest that heat stress rather than drought stress will impact UK wheat production in the future(Senapati et al, 2019;Harkness et al, 2020) althoughHarkness et al (2020) predict drought impacts on southern and eastern production which typically receive less rainfall Flohr et al (2017). reported that the optimal flowering period for wheat is primarily driven by water supply and demand with heat and temperature having secondary effects.…”