Advances in first bloom dates and increased occurrences of yearly second blooms in eastern China since the 1960s: further phenological evidence of climate warming

Ge, Quansheng; Dai, Junhu; Zheng, Jie; Bai, Jie; Zhong, Shuai; Wang, Huanjiong; Wang, Wei‐Chyung

doi:10.1007/s11284-011-0830-7

Cited by 27 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…over the period 1952-2007 were nearly −1.1 days/decade in Henan, −2.0 days/decade in Beijing and Shandong, and −1.4 days/decade in Shaanxi. Furthermore, the first flowering dates of 23 species at 22 stations in eastern China since the 1960s were found to advance at the average rate of 1.2 days/decade [35], and the same rate has been reported for the FLD across the Northern Hemisphere over the period 1955-2002 [36]. The two results are also in good agreement with the average trend (−1.3 days/decade) of Zhongyuan Peony.…”

Section: The Consistency Of Regional Phenological Trendssupporting

confidence: 82%

Spatiotemporal Variation in Full-Flowering Dates of Tree Peonies in the Middle and Lower Reaches of China’s Yellow River: A Simulation through the Panel Data Model

2017

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Abstract:The spring flowering of tree peony (Paeonia suffruticosa) not only attract tens of million tourists every year, but it can also serve as a bio-indicator of climate change. Examining climate-associated spatiotemporal changes in peony flowering can contribute to the development of smarter flower-viewing tourism by providing more efficient decision-making information. We developed a panel data model for the tree peony to quantify the relationship between full-flowering date (FFD) and air temperature in the middle and lower reaches of China's Yellow River. Then, on the basis of the model and temperature data, FFD series at 24 sites during 1955-2011 were reconstructed and the spatiotemporal variation in FFD over the region was analysed. Our results showed that the panel data model could well simulate the phenophase at the regional scale with due consideration paid to efficiency and difficulty, and the advance of peony FFD responded to the increase in February-April temperature at a rate of 3.02 days/1 • C. In addition, the simulation revealed that regional FFDs followed the latitudinal gradient and had advanced by 6-9 days over the past 57 years, at the rate of 0.8 to 1.8 days/decade. Among sub-areas, the eastern forelands of Taihang Mountains and Luliang Mountains showed more FFD advances than the other areas.

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Section: The Consistency Of Regional Phenological Trendssupporting

confidence: 82%

Spatiotemporal Variation in Full-Flowering Dates of Tree Peonies in the Middle and Lower Reaches of China’s Yellow River: A Simulation through the Panel Data Model

2017

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“…Using the spring indices (SI) model, Schwartz et al [40] found FLD advanced quickly over 1955-2002 at a rate of 1.2 days/decade across the Northern Hemisphere. Ge et al [41] reported that the average trend for the first flowering date of 23 species at 22 sites in China was 1.2 days/decade, implying a 6 days' advance during the past 50 years. Results of this study (1.1 days/decade) and those by Ge et al [41] indicated that changes of spring phenophases in China was close to the Schwartz's results, but weaker than other studies [38,39].…”

Section: Regional Differences Of Phenological Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Ge et al [41] reported that the average trend for the first flowering date of 23 species at 22 sites in China was 1.2 days/decade, implying a 6 days' advance during the past 50 years. Results of this study (1.1 days/decade) and those by Ge et al [41] indicated that changes of spring phenophases in China was close to the Schwartz's results, but weaker than other studies [38,39]. The numerical difference of phenological changes among above studies may be related to datasampling methodologies, different definitions of the phenological events and the distribution of the study sites, and the actual difference of phenologial change.…”

Section: Regional Differences Of Phenological Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The spatiotemporal characteristics of spring phenophase changes of Fraxinus chinensis in China from 1952 to 2007

Wang

Dai

2012

Sci. China Earth Sci.

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We selected widely distributed and well observed plant species Fraxinus chinensis to study the formation mechanism of geographical distribution of the plant phenophase changes and revealed their spatiotemporal dynamics in China. Based on the first leaf date (FLD) data at 12 sites derived from Chinese Phenological Observation Network (CPON) and related meteorological data, we developed and validated the process-based model of FLD for Fraxinus chinensis. After reconstructing data series of FLD for Fraxinus chinensis over the study area from 1952 to 2007, we analyzed different spatiotemporal patterns of phenophase changes of this species. The results suggested that the process-based model was able to simulate the FLD accurately for Fraxinus chinensis on large spatial and temporal scales, because of the consideration of different budding rate responded to the air temperatures during the dormancy and the quiescence in accordance with the physiological mechanism of plants. The geographical distribution of the spring phenology in temperate regions was determined by the spatial pattern of daily average air temperature. The changes of FLD for Fraxinus chinensis revealed significant phenological advances in most areas. However, it showed delayed trends in a few sites. The overall average change trend was 1.1 days/decade. This result was consistent with the advanced trend in other regions of the North Hemisphere. The changes of FLD showed a noticeable regional variation with clearer advance in the north than in the south. The FLD in northern China showed an average advance as high as 2.0 days/decade (P<0.01). And the advance in northeastern and northwestern China was respectively 1.5 and 1.4 days/decade (P<0.01). Furthermore, eastern and central regions showed a minor trend, which was 1.0 days/decade (P<0.05). The smallest and non-significant advance appeared in southwestern and southern China. phenophases, phenological model, first leaf, Fraxinus chinensis Citation:Wang H J, Dai J H, Ge Q S. The spatiotemporal characteristics of spring phenophase changes of Fraxinus chinensis in China from 1952 to 2007. Sci China Earth Sci, 2012, 55: 991 -1000, doi: 10.1007 Phenology is the study of periodic biological events influenced by the environment [1,2], and now attracts more attention in the context of global changes. Phenological phenomenon can reflect the impacts of climate change on the biological and physical systems [3], and bears the fingerprints of global warming [4]. Besides the meteorological, hydrologic and satellite data, phenological data have assumed a special role over the past several decades as an independent measure of the impacts of climate change on the biosphere [2]. Climate change affects plant phenology. Increased phenological changes in temperate forests are likely to have strong impacts on both distribution [5] and productivity [6] of tree species, and implicate the terrestrial storage of carbon [7]. Therefore an accurate reconstruction of the past phenology of woody plants is necessary for understan...

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“…; Ge et al . ). The ascending order of grassland NPP and its class may have significant implications for grassland succession in Chinese grassland ecosystems with predicted changes in spatio‐temporal patterns of precipitation under the influence of global climate change.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Evaluation of six methods to predict grassland net primary productivity along an altitudinal gradient in the Alxa Rangeland, Western Inner Mongolia, China

Lin

Zhang

2013

Grassland Science

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Accurately estimating grassland net primary productivity (NPP) plays an important role in the study of global carbon budgeting. The six different methods (Miami Model, Schuur Model, Chikugo Model, Beijing Model, Synthetic Model and Classification Indices‐based Model) were compared in terms of their performance in predicting grassland NPP with NPP derived from field‐observed data at eight study sites along an altitudinal gradient in the Helan Mountain range and the surrounding desert in the Alxa Rangeland, Western Inner Mongolia, China. One hundred and twenty plot‐based NPP sets from the eight study sites were used, which were obtained from 2003 to 2005, within areas classified as alpine meadow, cold temperate‐humid montane meadow, cool temperate‐subhumid meadow steppe, cool temperate‐semiarid temperate typical steppe and cool temperate‐arid temperate zonal semi‐desert according to the Integrated Orderly Classification System of Grassland (IOCSG). The relative high model efficiency in predicting grassland NPP using the Classification Indices‐based Model and Chikugo Model indicates that these models outperform others. On the basis of input data requirements and the number of free parameters involved in each model, the Classification Indices‐based Model was found to be the best choice for the given grassland classes. The results presented in this study were not only specific to this region, but more importantly, were specific to the given grassland classes according to the IOCSG approach, which can be scaled up from plots to estimate landscape‐scale effects.

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Advances in first bloom dates and increased occurrences of yearly second blooms in eastern China since the 1960s: further phenological evidence of climate warming

Cited by 27 publications

References 17 publications

Spatiotemporal Variation in Full-Flowering Dates of Tree Peonies in the Middle and Lower Reaches of China’s Yellow River: A Simulation through the Panel Data Model

Spatiotemporal Variation in Full-Flowering Dates of Tree Peonies in the Middle and Lower Reaches of China’s Yellow River: A Simulation through the Panel Data Model

The spatiotemporal characteristics of spring phenophase changes of Fraxinus chinensis in China from 1952 to 2007

Evaluation of six methods to predict grassland net primary productivity along an altitudinal gradient in the Alxa Rangeland, Western Inner Mongolia, China

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