Addressing potential local adaptation in species distribution models: implications for conservation under climate change

Hällfors, Maria; Liao, Jishan; Dzurisin, Jason D. K.; Grundel, Ralph; Hyvärinen, Marko; Towle, Kevin M.; Wu, Grace C.; Hellmann, Jessica J.

doi:10.1890/15-0926.1

Cited by 46 publications

(58 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…Given that populations of many temperate and boreal tree species are locally adapted to climate (Savolainen et al 2007;Alberto et al 2013;Aitken & Bemmels 2016), local adaptation has been hypothesized to have been an important factor affecting Pleistocene range shifts in trees (Davis & Shaw 2001), and is often considered to be a key factor that will determine the effects of future climate change on the potential geographic distributions of tree populations (e.g. Pearman et al 2010;Benito Garz on et al 2011;Gray & Hamann 2013;Valladares et al 2014;Gotelli & Stanton-Geddes 2015;H€ allfors et al 2016) and of adaptive genomic variation (Fitzpatrick & Keller 2015). In some cases, local adaptation may also leave a signature in patterns of neutral genetic variation (through its mediating effects on patterns of gene flow; e.g.…”

Section: Lack Of Support For Competing Explanations For Genetic Strucmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Given the geographic variation in functional traits in many tree species, it is also possible that geographic range shifts in response to climate change will depend strongly on individual responses of specific populations to unique environmental factors (e.g. Davis & Shaw 2001;Pearman et al 2010;Benito Garz on et al 2011;Valladares et al 2014;Gotelli & Stanton-Geddes 2015;H€ allfors et al 2016). Lastly, the response to past climate change might simply reflect shifts in habitat suitability as it relates to basic climate variables, without the need to invoke complex, species-specific nuances of niche or mechanistic trade-offs in functional traits.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Tests of species‐specific models reveal the importance of drought in postglacial range shifts of a Mediterranean‐climate tree: insights from integrative distributional, demographic and coalescent modelling andABCmodel selection

et al. 2016

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Past climate change has caused shifts in species distributions and undoubtedly impacted patterns of genetic variation, but the biological processes mediating responses to climate change, and their genetic signatures, are often poorly understood. We test six species-specific biologically informed hypotheses about such processes in canyon live oak (Quercus chrysolepis) from the California Floristic Province. These hypotheses encompass the potential roles of climatic niche, niche multidimensionality, physiological trade-offs in functional traits, and local-scale factors (microsites and local adaptation within ecoregions) in structuring genetic variation. Specifically, we use ecological niche models (ENMs) to construct temporally dynamic landscapes where the processes invoked by each hypothesis are reflected by differences in local habitat suitabilities. These landscapes are used to simulate expected patterns of genetic variation under each model and evaluate the fit of empirical data from 13 microsatellite loci genotyped in 226 individuals from across the species range. Using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), we obtain very strong support for two statistically indistinguishable models: a trade-off model in which growth rate and drought tolerance drive habitat suitability and genetic structure, and a model based on the climatic niche estimated from a generic ENM, in which the variables found to make the most important contribution to the ENM have strong conceptual links to drought stress. The two most probable models for explaining the patterns of genetic variation thus share a common component, highlighting the potential importance of seasonal drought in driving historical range shifts in a temperate tree from a Mediterranean climate where summer drought is common.

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Section: Lack Of Support For Competing Explanations For Genetic Strucmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tests of species‐specific models reveal the importance of drought in postglacial range shifts of a Mediterranean‐climate tree: insights from integrative distributional, demographic and coalescent modelling andABCmodel selection

et al. 2016

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Multiple factors, including current genetic and ecological diversity within species, influence whether climate change will have beneficial or detrimental consequences on species ranges and persistence (Hoffmann and Sgrò 2011, Moritz and Agudo 2013, Urban 2015. Moreover, spatial variation in genetic and ecological diversity differentially affects locally adapted populations within species, but such variation has been incorporated in future predictions only recently (Fitzpatrick and Keller 2015, Gotelli and Stanton-Geddes 2015, Moran et al 2015, Hällfors et al 2016, Ikeda et al 2017. Therefore, assessing the role of intraspecific biological diversity on species persistence under rapid climate change represents a central goal in biodiversity research and conservation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting range shifts of a cold‐adapted species under climate change: are genomic and ecological diversity within species crucial for future resilience?

et al. 2018

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Cold-adapted taxa are experiencing severe range shifts due to climate change and are expected to suffer a significant reduction of their climatically suitable habitats in the next few decades. However, it has been proposed that taxa with sufficient standing genetic and ecologic diversity will better withstand climate change. These taxa are typically more broadly distributed in geographic and ecological niche space, therefore they are likely to endure higher levels of populations loss than more restricted, less diverse taxa before the effects of those losses impact their overall diversity and resilience. Here, we explore the potential relationship between intraspecific genetic and ecological diversity and future resilience, using the cold-adapted plant Primula farinosa. We employ high-throughput sequencing to assess the genomic diversity of phylogeographic lineages in P. farinosa. Additionally, we use current climatic variables to define niche breadth and niche differentiation across lineages. Finally, we calibrate species distribution models (SDMs) and project the climatic preferences of each lineage on future climate to predict lineagespecific shifts in climatically suitable habitats. Our study predicts relative persistence of future suitable habitats for the most genetically and ecologically diverse lineages of the cold-adapted P. farinosa, but significant reduction of them for two out of its four lineages. While we do not provide specific experiments aimed at identifying the causal links between genetic diversity and resilience to climate change, our results indicate that greater genetic diversity and wider ecological breadth may buffer species responses to rapid climatic changes. This study further highlights the importance of integrating knowledge of intraspecific diversity for predicting species fate in response to climate change.

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“…This has implications for comparative studies, because for each species, the realised niche quantified from distribution data will be a more or less accurate representation of the fundamental niche. However, recent advances in modelling species distributions have begun to address this problem by incorporating factors such as dispersal (Génard and Lescourret 2013), biotic interactions (Kissling et al 2010, Wisz et al 2013, adaptation (Hällfors et al 2015), population dynamics (Heinrichs et al 2010), and multiple drivers and their interactions (Hof et al 2011).…”

Section: Quantification Of Climatic Niches In Birds: Adding the Tempomentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantification of climatic niches in birds: adding the temporal dimension

Eyres

Böhning‐Gaese

Fritz

2017

Journal of Avian Biology

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Quantification of the climatic niche from geographic occurrences is an increasingly important tool for studying species' relationships to their environment, for example to predict responses to climate change. However, as the geographic distributions of birds are seasonally dynamic, they pose a challenge to carrying out comparable and appropriate quantification of climatic niches. In this review, we first assess how relevant seasonal dynamics are across birds as a whole by compiling a database of migratory behaviour for 10 443 bird species. Second, we examine how studies have quantified climatic niches of birds. Finally, using Australia as a case study, we investigate how well existing distribution datasets represent temporal dynamics by comparing seasonal patterns of species richness obtained from point-occurrence data with those from range maps and assess the consequences for niche quantification. We provide a consistent classification of migratory behaviour across all birds, and find that a huge variety exists between and within species that should be considered when quantifying climatic niches. Despite this, our review of the literature revealed that seasonal dynamics have often not been accounted for. For future studies, we provide a framework for selecting appropriate occurrence data depending on migratory behaviour and data availability. Our comparison of seasonal species richness patterns obtained from extent-of-occurrence range maps and point-occurrence data suggests that range maps are less able to detect temporal dynamics of bird distributions than pointoccurrence data. We conclude that seasonally explicit range maps combined with climatic data for the corresponding time period can be used to adequately quantify climatic niches for resident birds, but are not adequate to quantify the climatic niches of migratory and nomadic species. Therefore, consistent quantification of climatic niches across all birds requires temporally explicit occurrence points. As such, increasing the availability of occurrence data and methods correcting biases should be a priority.Quantification of the climatic niche -the set of climatic conditions under which a species is able to survive, reproduce and persist (Pearson and Dawson 2003, Soberón 2007) -has become an increasingly important and popular method when studying species' relationships to their abiotic environment, for example to understand the ecology and evolution of climatic niches. Climatic niches can be directly quantified by experimental measurement of individual physiological tolerances (Diamond et al. 2012, Khaliq et al. 2014; however, as obtaining physiological data is expensive and timeconsuming these data only exist for a few species. Instead, a correlative approach is most commonly used to quantify climatic niches whereby the species' observed distribution is combined with climatic data (Araújo and Peterson 2012). Methods such as species distribution modelling (SDM) or ordination techniques can then be used to describe the relationship between a species an...

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Addressing potential local adaptation in species distribution models: implications for conservation under climate change

Cited by 46 publications

References 59 publications

Tests of species‐specific models reveal the importance of drought in postglacial range shifts of a Mediterranean‐climate tree: insights from integrative distributional, demographic and coalescent modelling andABCmodel selection

Tests of species‐specific models reveal the importance of drought in postglacial range shifts of a Mediterranean‐climate tree: insights from integrative distributional, demographic and coalescent modelling andABCmodel selection

Forecasting range shifts of a cold‐adapted species under climate change: are genomic and ecological diversity within species crucial for future resilience?

Quantification of climatic niches in birds: adding the temporal dimension

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