Quantitative knowledge of the long-term human papillomavirus (HPV) type-specific risks for high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasias Grades 2 and 3 (CIN2 and CIN3) is useful for estimating the effect of elimination of specific HPV types and clinical benefits of screening for specific HPV types. We estimated HPV type-specific risks for CIN2 and CIN3 using a randomized primary HPV screening trial followed up for 14.6 years using comprehensive, nationwide registers. Poisson regression estimated cumulative incidences, population attributable proportions (PAR) and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) of high-grade lesions by baseline HPV type, with censoring at date of first CIN2/3 or last registered cytology. Multivariate analysis adjusted for coinfections. IRRs were highest during the first screening round, but continued to be high throughout follow-up (IRRs for CIN3 associated with high-risk (HR) HPV positivity were 226.9, 49.3, 17.7 and 10.3 during the first, second and third screening round and for >9 years of follow-up, respectively). Increased long-term risks were found particularly for HPV Types 16, 18 and 31 and for CIN31 risks. HPV16/18/31/33 had 14-year cumulative incidences for CIN31 above 28%, HPV35/45/52/58 had 14 year risks between 14% and 18% and HPV39/51/56/59/66/68 had risks <10%. HPV16 contributed to the greatest proportion of CIN21 (first round PAR 36%), followed by Types 31, 52, 45 and 58 (7-11%). HPV16/18/31/33/45/52/58 together contributed 73.9% of CIN21 lesions and all HR types contributed 86.9%. In summary, we found substantial differences in risks for CIN2 and CIN3 between different oncogenic HPV types. These differences may be relevant for both clinical management and design of preventive strategies.While cervical cancer is the third most common female cancer worldwide, with an estimated 530,000 new cases diagnosed in 2008, 1 organized cytological screening programs in Europe have reduced the number of annual cervical malignancy cases on the continent from 68,000 diagnosed in 1995 2 to 55,000 in 2008.1 However, cytology has limited sensitivity in detecting the high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasias (CIN) Grade 2 (CIN2) and 3 (CIN3) that are the precursor lesions of cervical cancer.3,4 Infection with oncogenic ["highrisk" (HR)] types of human papillomavirus (HPV) is a necessary risk factor in cervical carcinogenesis.
5Several randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have reported that screening with HPV DNA testing has higher sensitivity for detection of high-grade CIN. 4,[6][7][8][9] The estimated CIN21 sensitivity is more than 90% for HPV testing, compared to an average of 55% for cytology.4,6-9 Accordingly, HPV testing affords better protection against invasive cervical cancer.
10The Swedescreen primary HPV screening RCT was started in Sweden in 1997 and explored the effect of a single life-time HPV test as an add-on to an organized population-based cervical screening program. Previous results have shown that the addition of an HPV test resulted in an increased detection of CIN21 in the f...