A Stochastic Model for Estimating Adolescent Sterility Among Married Women

Abstract

S U r n W r yIn this paper a etouhaatiu model is pweented for the time fo the first conception of 8 cohort of married women. By identifying three etatee "adoleecent sterility", "ovulation" and "conaeived", into which the women can be placed, the model incorporatea individu81 differenwe for the women in the "adoleecent sterility" state whioh allow for the individuel characteristics to affect the conversion of these women into the "ovulation" state. Using straightforward probabilistic arguments it is shown that the model providee 8 close fit to recently publiehed data, comparee favorably,with previously published models on the same subject 8nd it ie ueeful for planning purposee in predicting future developments.

Adolescent Sterility and Time required becoming Susceptible for Conception

“…Hence Singh (1964) assumed type III pearsonian distribution and applied compound exponential distribution to estimate fecundability. Pathak and Prasad (1977) derived a simple model assuming two groups of females, one is mature and exposed to the risk of conception at the time of marriage and other is not, further Nair (1983a and1983b) and Agrafiotis (1986) extended this model. Singh (1982) have proposed a modified probability distribution for the waiting time to first conception taking into account premarital conceptions as well as the termination of study after a certain period of time.…”