A Stationary Drake Equation Distribution as a Balance of Birth-death Processes

Abstract

Abstract Previous critiques of the Drake Equation have highlighted its deterministic nature, implying that the number of civilizations is the same at all times. Here, I build upon earlier work and present a stochastic formulation. The birth of civilizations within the galaxy is modeled as following a uniform rate (Poisson) stochastic process, with a mean rate of λ C . Each then experiences a constant hazard rate of collapse, which defines…