A self-organized critical model and multifractal analysis for earthquakes in Central Alborz, Iran

Abstract

This paper is devoted to a phenomenological study of the earthquakes in central Alborz, Iran. Using three observational quantities, namely the weight function, the quality factor, and the velocity model in this region, we develop a modified dissipative sandpile model which captures the main features of the system, especially the average activity field over the region of study. The model is based on external stimuli, the location of which is chosen (I) randomly, (II) on the faults, (III) on the low active points, (IV) on the moderately active points, and (V) on the highly active points in the region. We uncover some universal behaviors depending slightly on the method of external stimuli. A multi-fractal detrended fluctuation analysis is exploited to extract the spectrum of the Hurst exponent of the time series obtained by each of these schemes. Although the average Hurst exponent depends slightly on the method of stimuli, we numerically show that in all cases it is lower than 0.5, reflecting the anti-correlated nature of the system. The lowest average Hurst exponent is found to be associated with the case (V), in such a way that the more active the stimulated sites are, the lower the average Hurst exponent is obtained, i.e. the large earthquakes are more anticorrelated. Moreover, we find that the activity field achieved in this study provide information about the depth and topography of the basement, and also the area that can potentially be the location of the future large events. We successfully determine a high activity zone on the Mosha Fault, where the mainshock occurred on May 7th, 2020 (M$$_W$$ W 4.9).