A Review of Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Coffee Cultivation and Mycotoxigenic Fungi

Abstract

Coffee is one of the most traded commodities in the world. It plays a significant role in the global economy, employing over 125 million people. However, it is possible that this vital crop is threatened by changing climate conditions and fungal infections. This paper reviews how suitable areas for coffee cultivation and the toxigenic fungi species of Aspergillus, Penicillium, and Fusarium will be affected due to climate change. By combining climate models with species distribution models, a number of studies have investigated the future distribution of coffee cultivation. Studies predict that suitable coffee cultivation area could drop by ~50% under representation concentration pathway (RCP) 6.0 by 2050 for both Arabica and Robusta. These findings agree with other studies which also see an altitudinal migration of suitable cultivation areas to cooler regions, but limited scope for latitudinal migration owing to coffee’s inability to tolerate seasonal temperature changes. Increased temperatures will see an overall increase in mycotoxin production such as aflatoxins, particularly in mycotoxigenic fungi (e.g., Aspergillus flavus) more suited to higher temperatures. Arabica and Robusta’s limited ability to relocate means both species will be grown in less suitable climates, increasing plant stress and making coffee more susceptible to fungal infection and mycotoxins. Information regarding climate change parameters with respect to mycotoxin concentrations in real coffee samples is provided and how the changed climate affects mycotoxins in non-coffee systems is discussed. In a few areas where relocating farms is possible, mycotoxin contamination may decrease due to the “parasites lost” phenomenon. More research is needed to include the effect of mycotoxins on coffee under various climate change scenarios, as currently there is a significant knowledge gap, and only generalisations can be made. Future modelling of coffee cultivation, which includes the influence of atmospheric carbon dioxide fertilisation and forest management, is also required; however, all indications show that climate change will have an extremely negative effect on future coffee production worldwide in terms of both a loss of suitable cultivation areas and an increase in mycotoxin contamination.

Prevalence of toxigenic fungi and mycotoxins in Arabic coffee (Coffea arabica): Protective role of traditional coffee roasting, brewing and bacterial volatiles

“…Incidence of filamentous fungi is an important problem of coffee production and may occur in pre-harvest field conditions and/or post-harvest storage and handling [2,28]. In the present study, no fungal colonies were isolated from roasted and soluble coffee samples.…”

Predicted Aflatoxin B1 Increase in Europe Due to Climate Change: Actions and Reactions at Global Level

“…The effect of CC was also reviewed in the context of mycotoxigenic fungi in coffee cultivation regions, Mesoamerica and central Africa in particular [21]. CC is expected to modulate the prevalence of fungal species, with a decline in Penicillium species and an increase in aflatoxin-producing Aspergilli species.…”

Brazilian Coffee Production and the Future Microbiome and Mycotoxin Profile Considering the Climate Change Scenario

“…Drought is the main environmental restriction affecting coffee growth and production [ 79 ], not only for arabica coffee but also for robusta, which until recently was considered resistant to temperature increases, having been recently demystified by research conducted in Southeast Asia [ 80 ]. Some studies provided evidence that potential mycotoxigenic fungi may not be affected by the CO 2 treatments [ 81 ], nonetheless, these studies need to be better designed in order to include other climatic factors linked to the natural microbiome associated with coffee production/productivity [ 82 ]. Thus, it is still mandatory to design indirect means of assessing the vulnerability of coffee microbiota to temperature change in the field allied to stress and other climate factors, such as water and CO 2 , to verify how these climatic factors influence the population fluctuation of microorganisms and microbial succession directly associated with the production of coffee beans.…”