A projection of changes in landfalling atmospheric river frequency and extreme precipitation over western North America from the Large Ensemble CESM simulations

Hagos, Samson; Leung, L. Ruby; Yoon, Jin‐Ho; Lu, Jian; Gao, Yang

doi:10.1002/2015gl067392

Cited by 132 publications

(120 citation statements)

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“…In both the North Pacific and North Atlantic, uncertainty in projecting atmospheric river frequency has been linked to uncertainty in projecting the meridional shift of the jet position in the future (Gao et al, 2015Hagos et al, 2016), with consequential impacts on robust predictions of regional hydrologic extremes in areas frequented by land falling atmospheric rivers.…”

Section: Extremes and Hydrological Cyclementioning

confidence: 99%

High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6

et al. 2016

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Abstract. Robust projections and predictions of climate variability and change, particularly at regional scales, rely on the driving processes being represented with fidelity in model simulations. The role of enhanced horizontal resolution in improved process representation in all components of the climate system is of growing interest, particularly as some recent simulations suggest both the possibility of significant changes in large-scale aspects of circulation as well as improvements in small-scale processes and extremes.However, such high-resolution global simulations at climate timescales, with resolutions of at least 50 km in the atmosphere and 0.25 • in the ocean, have been performed at relatively few research centres and generally without overall coordination, primarily due to their computational cost. Assessing the robustness of the response of simulated climate to model resolution requires a large multi-model ensemble using a coordinated set of experiments. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) is the ideal framework within which to conduct such a study, due to the strong link to models being developed for the CMIP DECK experiments and other model intercomparison projects (MIPs).Increases in high-performance computing (HPC) resources, as well as the revised experimental design for CMIP6, now enable a detailed investigation of the impact of increased resolution up to synoptic weather scales on the simulated mean climate and its variability.The High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) presented in this paper applies, for the first time, a multi-model approach to the systematic investigation of the impact of horizontal resolution. A coordinated set of experiments has been designed to assess both a standard and an enhanced horizontal-resolution simulation in the atmosphere and ocean. The set of HighResMIP experiments is divided into three tiers consisting of atmosphere-only and coupled runs and spanning the period 1950-2050, with the possibility of extending to 2100, together with some additional targeted experiments. This paper describes the experimental set-up of HighResMIP, the analysis plan, the connection with the other CMIP6 endorsed MIPs, as well as the DECK and CMIP6 historical simulations. HighResMIP thereby focuses on one of the CMIP6 broad questions, "what are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases?", but we also discuss how it addresses the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) grand challenges.

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Section: Extremes and Hydrological Cyclementioning

confidence: 99%

High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6

et al. 2016

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“…The U.S. West Coast meets both of these criteria: ARs deliver 30–50% of California's precipitation (Dettinger, ), are crucial for snowpack (Guan et al, ), and also induce hazards such as extreme precipitation, wind, floods, and mudslides (Neiman et al, ; Oakley et al, ; Ralph et al, ; Waliser & Guan, ). The simultaneous dependence on and vulnerability to ARs along the West Coast has motivated substantial research into the sensitivity of AR characteristics to global and regional climate variability and change (e.g., Dettinger, ; Gao et al, ; Gershunov et al, ; Hagos et al, ; Payne & Magnusdottir, ; Ramos et al, ; Shields & Kiehl, ; Warner et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent Warming of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers Along the West Coast of the United States

et al. 2019

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Atmospheric rivers (ARs) often generate extreme precipitation, with AR temperature strongly influencing hydrologic impacts by altering the timing and magnitude of runoff. Long‐term changes in AR temperatures therefore have important implications for regional hydroclimate—especially in locations where a shift to more rain‐dominated AR precipitation could affect flood risk and/or water storage in snowpack. In this study, we provide the first climatology of AR temperature across five U.S. West Coast subregions. We then assess trends in landfalling AR temperatures for each subregion from 1980 to 2016 using three reanalysis products. We find AR warming at seasonal and monthly scales. Cool‐season warming ranges from 0.69 to 1.65 °C over the study period. We detect monthly scale warming of >2 °C, with the most widespread warming occurring in November and March. To understand the causes of AR warming, we quantify the density of AR tracks from genesis to landfall and analyze along‐track AR temperature for each month and landfall region. We investigate three possible influences on AR temperature trends at landfall: along‐track temperatures prior to landfall, background temperatures over the landfall region, and AR temperature over the coastal ocean adjacent to the region of landfall. Generally, AR temperatures at landfall more closely match coastal and background temperature trends than along‐track AR temperature trends. The seasonal asymmetry of the AR warming and the heterogeneity of influences have important implications for regional water storage and flood risk—demonstrating that changes in AR characteristics are complex and may not be directly inferred from changes in the background climate.

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“…The importance of ARs in weather and climate has prompted increasing interests on the behavior of ARs in future climate [ Dettinger , ; Lavers et al , ; Payne and Magnusdottir , ; Warner et al , ; Radić et al , ; Gao et al , , ; Hagos et al , ; Ramos et al , ; Shields and Kiehl , , ]. A number of these studies involved, to different extents of comprehensiveness, the evaluation of model performance in simulating the behavior of ARs in the current climate, in order to establish credibility for the model projections.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Atmospheric rivers in 20 year weather and climate simulations: A multimodel, global evaluation

Guan

Waliser

2017

JGR Atmospheres

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Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow, elongated, synoptic jets of water vapor that play important roles in the global water cycle and meteorological/hydrological extremes. Increasing evidence shows that ARs have signatures and impacts in many regions across different continents. However, global‐scale characterizations of AR representations in weather and climate models have been very limited. Using a recently developed AR detection algorithm oriented for global applications, the representation of AR activities in multidecade weather/climate simulations is evaluated. The algorithm is applied to 6‐hourly (daily) integrated water vapor transport (IVT) from 22 (2) global weather/climate models that participated in the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Atmospheric System Study–Year of Tropical Convection Multimodel Experiment, including four models with ocean‐atmosphere coupling and two models with superparameterization. Multiple reanalysis products are used as references to help quantify model errors in the context of reanalysis uncertainty. Model performance is examined for key aspects of ARs (frequency, intensity, geometry, and seasonality), with the focus on identifying and understanding systematic errors in simulated ARs. The results highlight the range of model performances relative to reanalysis uncertainty in representing the most basic features of ARs. Among the 17 metrics considered, AR frequency, zonal IVT, fractional zonal circumference, fractional total meridional IVT, and three seasonality metrics have consistently large errors across all models. Possible connections between AR simulation qualities and aspects of model configurations are discussed. Despite the lack of a monotonic relationship, the importance of model horizontal resolution to the overall quality of AR simulation is suggested by the evaluation results.

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A projection of changes in landfalling atmospheric river frequency and extreme precipitation over western North America from the Large Ensemble CESM simulations

Cited by 132 publications

References 27 publications

High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6

High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6

Recent Warming of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers Along the West Coast of the United States

Atmospheric rivers in 20 year weather and climate simulations: A multimodel, global evaluation

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