A projection for global CO2 emissions from the industrial sector through 2030 based on activity level and technology changes

Akashi, Osamu; Hanaoka, Tatsuya; Matsuoka, Yuzuru; Kainuma, Mikiko

doi:10.1016/j.energy.2010.08.016

Cited by 95 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…The use of population and GDP scenarios enables us to project future service demands such as industrial production, transport volume, etc., based on statistical model analyses. Akashi et al (2011) andHanaoka et al (2009) offer detailed descriptions of service demand projections. Table 3 summarizes the socioeconomic scenarios and projected service demands in major regions.…”

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confidence: 99%

Technological feasibility and costs of achieving a 50 % reduction of global GHG emissions by 2050: mid- and long-term perspectives

Akashi

Hanaoka

2012

Sustain Sci

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In this article we examine the technological feasibility of the global target of reducing GHG emissions to 50 % of the 1990 level by the year 2050. We also perform a detailed analysis of the contribution of low-carbon technologies to GHG emission reduction over mid-and long-term timeframes, and evaluate the required technological cost. For the analysis we use AIM/Enduse[Global], a technoeconomic model for climate change mitigation policy assessment. The results show that a 50 % GHG emission reduction target is technically achievable. Yet achieving the target will require substantial emission mitigation efforts. The GHG emission reduction rate from the reference scenario stands at 23 % in 2020 and 73 % in 2050. The marginal abatement cost to achieve these emission reductions reaches $150/tCO 2 -eq in 2020 and $600/tCO 2 -eq in 2050. Renewable energy, fuel switching, and efficiency improvement in power generation account for 45 % of the total GHG emission reduction in 2020. Non-energy sectors, namely, fugitive emission, waste management, agriculture, and F-gases, account for 25 % of the total GHG emission reduction in 2020. CCS, solar power generation, wind power generation, biomass power generation, and biofuel together account for 64 % of the total GHG emission reduction in 2050. Additional investment in GHG abatement technologies for achieving the target reaches US$ 6.0 trillion by 2020 and US$ 73 trillion by 2050. This corresponds to 0.7 and 1.8 % of the world GDP, respectively, in the same periods. NonAnnex I regions account for 55 % of the total additional investment by 2050. In a sectoral breakdown, the power generation and transport sectors account for 56 and 30 % of the total additional investment by 2050, respectively.

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confidence: 99%

Technological feasibility and costs of achieving a 50 % reduction of global GHG emissions by 2050: mid- and long-term perspectives

Akashi

Hanaoka

2012

Sustain Sci

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“…For the rapidly developing regions, industrial CO 2 emission is affected by both industrial production changes and process technology [39]. Hence, there is more GHG reduction potential if industrial activity/production were considered.…”

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confidence: 99%

Insights into the Regional Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emission of Industrial Processes: A Case Study of Shenyang, China

et al. 2014

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This paper examines the GHG emission of industrial process in Shenyang city, in the Liaoning province of China, using the 2006 IPCC greenhouse gas inventory guideline. Results show that the total GHG emissions of industrial process has increased, from 1.48 Mt in 2004 to 4.06 Mt in 2009, except for a little decrease in 2008. The cement industry, and iron and steel industries, are the main emission sources, accounting for more than 90% of the total carbon emissions. GHG emissions in 2020 are estimated based on scenario analysis. The research indicates that the cement industry, and iron and steel industries, will still be the largest emission sources, and the total carbon emissions under the business as usual (BAU) scenario will be doubled in 2020 compared with that of 2009. However, when countermeasures are taken, the GHG emission will reduce significantly. Using more clinker substitutes for blended cement, and increasing direct reduction iron process and recycled steel scraps are efficient measures in reducing GHG emission. Scenario 4, which has the highest ratio of 30/70 blended cement and the highest ratio of steel with recycled steel-EAF process, is the best one. In this scenario, the industrial process GHG emission in 2020 can almost stay the same as that of 2009. From the perspective of regions, cement industry and iron and steel industry accounted for the vast majority of GHG emission in all industries. Meanwhile, these two industries become the OPEN ACCESSSustainability 2014, 6 3670 most potential industries for reduction of GHG emission. This study provides an insight for GHG emission of different industries at the scale of cities in China.

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“…Based on the assumed population and GDP, we project future service demands such as industrial production and transportation volume, etc. Akashi et al (2011) and Hanaoka et al (2009) …”

Section: Socio-economic Parametersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Halving global GHG emissions by 2050 without depending on nuclear and CCS

et al. 2013

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In this paper, we assessed the technological feasibility and economic viability of the mid-term (until 2050) GHG emission reduction target required for stabilization of radiative forcing at 2.6 W/m2. Given the apparent uncertainty surrounding the future deployment of nuclear and CCS technologies, we intensively investigated emission reduction scenarios without nuclear and CCS. The analysis using AIM/Enduse [Global] shows the emission reduction target is technologically feasible, but the cost for achieving the target becomes very high if nuclear and CCS options are limited. The main reason for the cost rise is that additional investment for expensive technologies is required in order to compensate for emission increases in the steel, cement and power generation sectors in the absence of CCS. On the other hand, if material efficiency improvement measures, such as material substitution, efficient use of materials and recycling, are taken, the cost of achieving the emission reduction target is significantly reduced. The result indicates the potentially important role of material efficiency improvement in curbing the cost of significant GHG emission reductions without depending on nuclear and CCS.

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A projection for global CO2 emissions from the industrial sector through 2030 based on activity level and technology changes

Cited by 95 publications

References 10 publications

Technological feasibility and costs of achieving a 50 % reduction of global GHG emissions by 2050: mid- and long-term perspectives

Technological feasibility and costs of achieving a 50 % reduction of global GHG emissions by 2050: mid- and long-term perspectives

Insights into the Regional Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emission of Industrial Processes: A Case Study of Shenyang, China

Halving global GHG emissions by 2050 without depending on nuclear and CCS

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