2011
DOI: 10.1175/2011wcas1076.1
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Abstract: Tornado warnings are currently issued an average of 13 min in advance of a tornado and are based on a warn-on-detection paradigm. However, computer model improvements may allow for a new warning paradigm, warn-on-forecast, to be established in the future. This would mean that tornado warnings could be issued one to two hours in advance, prior to storm initiation. In anticipation of the technological innovation, this study inquires whether the warn-on-forecast paradigm for tornado warnings may be preferred by t… Show more

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Cited by 70 publications
(55 citation statements)
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“…The mean lead time for all events included in this study was 12.5 min, comparable to the national average value of 13 min (Hoekstra et al 2011). Mean lead time if the initial warning contained mention of other radar metrics such as rotation was comparable to the national average, at 12.1 min.…”
Section: B Associations Between Tornado Warnings and Tdsssupporting
confidence: 59%
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“…The mean lead time for all events included in this study was 12.5 min, comparable to the national average value of 13 min (Hoekstra et al 2011). Mean lead time if the initial warning contained mention of other radar metrics such as rotation was comparable to the national average, at 12.1 min.…”
Section: B Associations Between Tornado Warnings and Tdsssupporting
confidence: 59%
“…Using the regional divisions of Brotzge et al (2011), there were not enough TDSs in the West region for robust statistical comparison. Elsewhere, however, tornadoes were typically warned in the Great Plains region, with large lead time (Table 3).…”
Section: B Associations Between Tornado Warnings and Tdssmentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…If too many false alarms are issued, then these will also be ignored. So, for rare extreme hazardous events, high probability of detection is needed but the false alarms need to be mitigated (Bieringer and Ray, 1996;Black and Ashley, 2011;Glahn 2005;Hoekstra et al, 2011;Polger et al, 1994).…”
Section: Thunderstormmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…This was done in order not to "cry wolf" and "alarm the public". An emerging source of information is the use of high resolution NWP (Hoekstra et al 2011;Li, 2010;Stensrud et al 2009). While phase errors exist (time and location of the thunderstorm), the models appear to be able to capture the morphology of the storm (see Fig.…”
Section: Other Data Setsmentioning
confidence: 99%