A Predictive Model of the Temperature-Dependent Inactivation of Coronaviruses

Abstract

<jats:p>The COVID-19 pandemic has stressed healthcare systems and supply lines, forcing medical doctors to risk infection by decontaminating and reusing single-use medical personal protective equipment. The uncertain future of the pandemic is compounded by limited data on the ability of the responsible virus, SARS-CoV-2, to survive across various climates, preventing epidemiologists from accurately modeling its spread. However, a detailed thermodynamic analysis of experimental data on the inactivation of SARS-CoV-2 and related coronaviruses can enable a fundamental understanding of their thermal degradation that will help model the COVID-19 pandemic and mitigate future outbreaks. This paper introduces a thermodynamic model that synthesizes existing data into an analytical framework built on first principles, including the rate law and the Arrhenius equation, to accurately predict the temperature-dependent inactivation of coronaviruses. The model provides much-needed thermal decontamination guidelines for personal protective equipment, including masks. For example, at 70 °C, a 3-log (99.9%) reduction in virus concentration can be achieved in ≈ 3 minutes and can be performed in most home ovens without reducing the efficacy of typical N95 masks. The model will also allow for epidemiologists to incorporate the lifetime of SARS-CoV-2 as a continuous function of environmental temperature into models forecasting the spread of coronaviruses across different climates and seasons.</jats:p>

A virucidal face mask based on the reverse‐flow reactor concept for thermal inactivation of SARS‐CoV‐2

“…We fit experimental data obtained from Chin et al 27 for SARS-CoV-2, as shown in Figure 1f, to find an activation energy of 132.6 kJ mol -1 and a natural log of the frequency factor, ln (𝐴), of 47.4. The correlation between the two fit parameters, 𝐸 𝑎 and ln (𝐴), follows a Meyer-Neldel rule that is suggestive of protein denaturation at high temperatures, 28 where x is position, t is time, and De is the dispersion coefficient.…”

“…Data reproduced from Chin et al27 (G) Thermal inactivation of SARS-CoV-2 is wellcharacterized, with first-order rate parameters following a Meyer-Neldel rule in agreement with other coronaviruses like the first severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-1), middle east respiratory syndrome (MERS-CoV), transmissible gastroenteritis virus (TGEV), mouse hepatitis virus (MHV), and porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV). Data reproduced from Yap et al28 [Color figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]…”