A pilot study exploring the contribution of working memory to “jumping to conclusions” in people with first episode psychosis

Ormrod, John; Shaftoe, Debra; Cavanagh, Kate; Freeston, Mark H.; Turkington, Douglas; Price, John D.; Dudley, Robert

doi:10.1080/13546805.2011.569372

Cited by 23 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…They were able to replicate the well-established finding that patients with schizophrenia drew less information during decision making compared to controls, but that ketamine had no effect on performance. The results of longitudinal studies in patients are somewhat mixed: in people with long-term illness the information gathering style (accessed either as DTD or JTC) remains stable [36], [37], while in people with early psychosis there has been found a decrease of information sampling in one study [38] and increase in the two others [39], [40]. The latter study had the longest follow up period (2 years) and found that less hasty decision makers were also less symptomatic.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Methamphetamine Administration on Information Gathering during Probabilistic Reasoning in Healthy Humans

et al. 2014

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Jumping to conclusions (JTC) during probabilistic reasoning is a cognitive bias repeatedly demonstrated in people with schizophrenia and shown to be associated with delusions. Little is known about the neurochemical basis of probabilistic reasoning. We tested the hypothesis that catecholamines influence data gathering and probabilistic reasoning by administering intravenous methamphetamine, which is known to cause synaptic release of the catecholamines noradrenaline and dopamine, to healthy humans whilst they undertook a probabilistic inference task. Our study used a randomised, double-blind, cross-over design. Seventeen healthy volunteers on three visits were administered either placebo or methamphetamine or methamphetamine preceded by amisulpride. In all three conditions participants performed the “beads” task in which participants decide how much information to gather before making a probabilistic inference, and which measures the cognitive bias towards jumping to conclusions. Psychotic symptoms triggered by methamphetamine were assessed using Comprehensive Assessment of At-Risk Mental States (CAARMS). Methamphetamine induced mild psychotic symptoms, but there was no effect of drug administration on the number of draws to decision (DTD) on the beads task. DTD was a stable trait that was highly correlated within subjects across visits (intra-class correlation coefficients of 0.86 and 0.91 on two versions of the task). The less information was sampled in the placebo condition, the more psychotic-like symptoms the person had after the methamphetamine plus amisulpride condition (p = 0.028). Our results suggest that information gathering during probabilistic reasoning is a stable trait, not easily modified by dopaminergic or noradrenergic modulation.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Methamphetamine Administration on Information Gathering during Probabilistic Reasoning in Healthy Humans

et al. 2014

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“…Previous work with patients with more chronic difficulties indicated that hasty decision‐making would likely persist (Peters & Garety, ; So et al ., ). Findings from this study are consistent with research with first‐episode service users (Menon et al ., ; Ormrod et al ., ; Woodward et al ., ), which indicates ‘JTC’ is changeable.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although this number is too small to draw any conclusions, it would suggest 'JTC' may not be stable over time. Ormrod et al (2012) investigated stability of JTC in people with first-episode psychosis. When tested over two time points around 8 months apart at baseline, 17/29 demonstrated JTC, whereas at follow-up this was 9/29 indicating a degree of instability in JTC over time.…”

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confidence: 99%

‘Jumping to conclusions’ in first‐episode psychosis: A longitudinal study

Dudley

Daley

Nicholson

et al. 2013

British J Clinic Psychol

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“…Given the similar findings of the large studies of and Falcone (2013), we can now be confident of an association of JTC with working memory. Arguably, studies such as that of Ormrod et al (2012) failed to find such an association because of a small sample size. The working memory impairment was associated with levels of current intellectual functioning (and these were not separable predictors of JTC).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Woodward et al 2008), including a study indicating that data gathering may improve when memory load in the beads task is reduced (Menon et al 2006). However, a study with 29 patients with early psychosis did not find a significant association of JTC with verbal working memory (Ormrod et al 2012). Given the results of the largest studies, there are increasing grounds to believe that working memory limitations contribute to the presence of JTC.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding jumping to conclusions in patients with persecutory delusions: working memory and intolerance of uncertainty

et al. 2014

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Background. Persecutory delusions are a key psychotic experience. A reasoning style known as 'jumping to conclusions' (JTC) -limited information gathering before reaching certainty in decision making -has been identified as a contributory factor in the occurrence of delusions. The cognitive processes that underpin JTC need to be determined in order to develop effective interventions for delusions. In the current study two alternative perspectives were tested: that JTC partially results from impairment in information-processing capabilities and that JTC is a motivated strategy to avoid uncertainty.Method. A group of 123 patients with persistent persecutory delusions completed assessments of JTC (the 60:40 beads task), IQ, working memory, intolerance of uncertainty, and psychiatric symptoms. Patients showing JTC were compared with patients not showing JTC.Results. A total of 30 (24%) patients with delusions showed JTC. There were no differences between patients who did and did not jump to conclusions in overall psychopathology. Patients who jumped to conclusions had poorer working memory performance, lower IQ, lower intolerance of uncertainty and lower levels of worry. Working memory and worry independently predicted the presence of JTC.Conclusions. Hasty decision making in patients with delusions may partly arise from difficulties in keeping information in mind. Interventions for JTC are likely to benefit from addressing working memory performance, while in vivo techniques for patients with delusions will benefit from limiting the demands on working memory. The study provides little evidence for a contribution to JTC from top-down motivational beliefs about uncertainty.

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A pilot study exploring the contribution of working memory to “jumping to conclusions” in people with first episode psychosis

Cited by 23 publications

References 39 publications

Effects of Methamphetamine Administration on Information Gathering during Probabilistic Reasoning in Healthy Humans

Effects of Methamphetamine Administration on Information Gathering during Probabilistic Reasoning in Healthy Humans

‘Jumping to conclusions’ in first‐episode psychosis: A longitudinal study

Understanding jumping to conclusions in patients with persecutory delusions: working memory and intolerance of uncertainty

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