A novel student achievement prediction model based on bagging‐CART machine learning algorithm

Abstract

The learning effect of students is crucial for assessing teaching quality, thus playing a significant role in teaching management. Predicting student achievement is a major challenge in understanding the learning effect of students. Currently, many studies have utilized machine learning methods such as the decision tree algorithms C4.5, ID3, CART, J48, random forest, and others. However, few studies have explored the use of the Bagging algorithm in this field. Therefore, this study proposes a classification prediction method for student achievement based on the Bagging‐CART algorithm. Initially, the student achievement data is preprocessed, and the Apriori method is applied to mine the strongly associated dataset. The optimal hyper‐parameters are determined through grid search to train and predict the Bagging‐CART algorithm. Furthermore, the CART, J48, and Bagging‐CART algorithms are trained, and their evaluation indicators are compared using a confusion matrix. The results indicate that the Bagging‐CART model achieves an accuracy of 98.16%, a recall rate of 91.80%, a precision of 90.83%, and an F1 score of 94.87%. In comparison, the accuracy, precision, and F1 scores are higher than those obtained with CART and J48. Although the recall rate is slightly lower than that of CART by 0.26%, it is 0.52% higher than that of J48. Consequently, this method demonstrates strong predictive capabilities and introduces a new reference method for evaluating students' learning effect.