A New Transmission Route for the Propagation of the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus

Abstract

Background: Starting late 2019, a novel coronavirus spread from the capital of the Hubei province in China to the rest of the country, then to most of the world. To anticipate future trends in the development of the pandemic, we explore here, based on public records of infected persons, how variation in the virus tropism could end up in different patterns, warranting a specific strategy to handle the epidemic. Methods: We use a compartmental model to describe the evolution of an individual through several possible states: susceptible, infected, alternative infection, detected, and removed. We fit the parameters of the model to the existing data, taking into account significant quarantine changes where necessary. Results: The model indicates that Wuhan quarantine measures were effective, but that alternative virus forms and a second propagation route are compatible with available data. For the Hong Kong, Singapore, and Shenzhen regions, the secondary route does not seem to be active. Conclusions: Hypotheses of an alternative infection tropism (the gut tropism) and a secondary propagation route are discussed using a model fitted by the available data. Corresponding prevention measures that take into account both routes should be implemented to the benefit of epidemic control.

Accounting for symptomatic and asymptomatic in a SEIR-type model of COVID-19

“…The other important information is that, as discovered by Danchin et al [4], an alternative transmission way may occur. Here, it is due to the proportion of asymptomatic infected individuals that is not negligible, as shown in Table 1.…”

“…They opined that to reduce R 0 significantly, the government should continue implementing strict measures on containment and public health issues. In the same tune as the latter, the model of Danchin et al [4] also suggests continuing to implement effective quarantine measures to avoid a resurgence of infection. The model consists of five (5) compartments: susceptible, infected, alternative infection, detected, and removed.…”

Impediments of coronavirus in healthcare wastewater treatment and ways to ameliorate them

“… 38 , 39 , 40 It has been suggested that possible fecal-oral route is through the active replication within the gastrointestinal tract followed by the release of virions in the wastewater streams and sewers. 41 Because the viral particles from the infected patients are usually mixed with organic matter, such as sputum and feces, and are thereby protected, the disinfection mechanism seems to be ineffective. 41 …”

“… 41 Because the viral particles from the infected patients are usually mixed with organic matter, such as sputum and feces, and are thereby protected, the disinfection mechanism seems to be ineffective. 41 …”

Wastewater-based epidemiology: a new frontier for tracking environmental persistence and community transmission of COVID-19

“…Ineffective treatment techniques coupled with poor quality control of existing infrastructure means that these viruses have more avenues to persist in the environment. It has been pointed out that SARS-CoV-2 could utilize these water bodies as potential environmental reservoirs, and considering the high rate of infectivity, it would be a serious issue to deal with in these countries (Danchin et al 2020). An important counterpoint to note is that despite the putative assumptions and circumstantial evidence, there has not been any concrete evidence for the presence of active SARS-CoV-2 virions in wastewater, but only of fragmented particles, in particular RNA (Ahmed et al 2020;Wu et al 2020;Kumar et al 2020;Fongaro et al 2021;Medema et al, 2021;Kolarević et al 2021;Tanhaei et al 2021).…”