DOI: 10.1029/2004jd005395
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Abstract: [1] Ensemble forecasting can be seen as serving two purposes: (1) by comparison of the control and ensemble members to the observed precipitation field, one can assess the forecast performance probabilistically; and (2) by comparison of ensemble members to the control forecast, one can assess the ''diversity'' of an ensemble and quantify the uncertainty of the forecast. Both problems are grounded to the basic requirement of being able to compare spatially nonhomogeneous, intermittent fields and come up with l…

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