volume 8, issue 2, P341-393 2002
DOI: 10.1017/s1357321700003755
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B.D. Rickayzen, D.E.P. Walsh

Abstract: ABSTRACTThis paper develops a multiple state model to project the number of people with disabilities in the United Kingdom over the next 35 years, thereby identifying implications for demand for long-term care for the elderly in the future.The model requires three types of data: prevalence rate data, transition rate data and trends data. Recent trends in healthy life expectancy data are used to frame the assumptions made regarding changes in the disability rates of the U.K. population in the future.Although th…

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