A Guide and Tool for Projecting Public Debt and Fiscal Adjustment Paths with Local- and Foreign-Currency Debt

Martínez, Leonardo; Ormaechea, Santiago Acosta

doi:10.5089/9781513577289.005

Technical Notes and Manuals

2021

DOI: 10.5089/9781513577289.005

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A Guide and Tool for Projecting Public Debt and Fiscal Adjustment Paths with Local- and Foreign-Currency Debt

Leonardo Martínez¹,

Santiago Acosta Ormaechea²

Abstract: for their comments and Ana María Trujillo for helping us build the DDT fan charts. Any errors are the responsibility of the authors.

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2024

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An extended Debt Sustainability Analysis framework for Latin American economies

Kataryniuk,

Lorenzo Alonso,

Martínez Casillas

et al. 2024

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The COVID-19 pandemic marked a watershed for public finances in Latin America and around the world. Fiscal measures adopted in 2020 to cope with the health emergency were substantial and affected debt dynamics. While the situation partially reverted in the following years, public debt is still higher than its recent historical average for most countries in the region. In this context, the sustainability of public debt dynamics has taken on renewed importance. In this paper, we extend a standard Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) framework that considers significant features of Latin American economies – such as the existence of foreign currency denominated debt – by introducing an economic model that jointly determines future values of key macroeconomic variables. We then compute different scenarios for Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru, illustrating how fiscal and structural policy changes affect the dynamics of public debt.

show abstract

An extended Debt Sustainability Analysis framework for Latin American economies

Kataryniuk,

Lorenzo Alonso,

Martínez Casillas

et al. 2024

Documentos Ocasionales

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

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A Guide and Tool for Projecting Public Debt and Fiscal Adjustment Paths with Local- and Foreign-Currency Debt

Abstract: for their comments and Ana María Trujillo for helping us build the DDT fan charts. Any errors are the responsibility of the authors.

Cited by 1 publication

References 3 publications

An extended Debt Sustainability Analysis framework for Latin American economies

An extended Debt Sustainability Analysis framework for Latin American economies

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