A Gravity Model of Migration Between the ENC and the EU

Abstract

Due to its ageing population and low birth rates, the European Union (EU) will need to import foreign labour in the next decades. In this context, the EU neighbouring countries (ENC) are the main countries of origin and transit of legal and irregular migration towards Europe. Their economic, cultural, and historical links also make them an important potential source of labour. The objective of this paper is to analyse past and future trends in ENC-EU bilateral migration relationships. With this aim, we specify and estimate a gravity model for nearly 200 countries between 1960 and 2010. Next, we use the model to obtain medium-run migration forecasts. Our results show a clear increase in migratory pressures from ENC to the EU in the near future, but probably lower than initially expected.

Turkish migration to Europe: a modified gravity model analysis

“…Evidence from the literature review has sought to confirm the effect of various factors on migration such as (1) relative differences in GDP per capita between the destination and the origin country; (2) population in the origin and the destination country; (3) geographical distance between capital cities of origin and destination countries; (4) Urbanization Rate; (5) Area; (6) Contiguity; (7) Community; (8) Landlocked. According to the labour market theory of immigration, a higher per capita income at sending country leads to a decrease in propensity to emigrate while a higher per capita income of destination country increases the propensity to immigrate (Ullah 2012;Ramos and Suriñach 2013). As a measure of labour market size in a country, population increase in the source country induces emigration whereas population increase in the destination country induces immigration (Lewer and Van den Berg 2008;Ramos and Suriñach 2013).…”

“…According to the labour market theory of immigration, a higher per capita income at sending country leads to a decrease in propensity to emigrate while a higher per capita income of destination country increases the propensity to immigrate (Ullah 2012;Ramos and Suriñach 2013). As a measure of labour market size in a country, population increase in the source country induces emigration whereas population increase in the destination country induces immigration (Lewer and Van den Berg 2008;Ramos and Suriñach 2013). Distance increases migration costs therefore migration has a negative function of distance (Praussello 2011;Ramos and Suriñach 2013).…”

“…Besides, the most common practice in empirical analyses is augmenting/enlarging the basic gravity model to control for demographic, geographic, social, historical, cultural, economic and political factors (Gallardo-Sejas et al 2006;Mayda 2010;Ortega and Peri 2013;Ramos and Suriñach 2013).…”

Migration, human capital and social capital: lessons for the EU neighbouring countries

“…As highlighted by Ramos and Suriñach (2013), this also requires improving the current control over migration flows and this is one of the reasons why the European migration policy was integrated into the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) from the very beginning. According to statistical data from the World Bank Development Indicators, the population of the EU neighbouring countries plus Russia is nowadays above 400 million people.…”

Geo-demographic Characteristics of Immigration to Sweden

“…Mezinárodní migrace má důležité politické, ekonomické, sociální, demografické, psychologické a kulturní dopady jak na emigrační, tak i na tranzitní a zejména imigrační země (Ramos, Surinach, 2013). Významné migrační proudy, a s nimi související rozličné problémy s integrací migrantů do nových majoritních společností, představují jeden z nejcitlivějších a současně potenciálně nejvýbušnějších globálních problémů lidstva zejména v rozvinutých zemích (Drbohlav, Uherek, 2007, Vavrečková, 2006, Jennissen, 2007.…”