A Deal that Does Not Die: The United States and the Rise, Fall and Future of the (CP)TPP

Abstract

The Trans‐Pacific Partnership (TPP) is one of the most politically resilient economic arrangements of the past decades. Its evolution, including the highs and lows, is closely tied to the shifting positions of the United States. This article examines the role played by the United States in the rise, fall and future of the TPP and its successor, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for TPP (CPTPP). First, this article revisits Washington's threefold geo‐economic interest behind the original TPP in terms of projecting influence in Asian affairs, supporting Obama's Rebalance to Asia strategy, and leading the regional rule‐writing efforts to facilitate 21st century trade and investment. Second, this article delves into offering an explanation of the loss of the TPP in the United States. It argues that the TPP was crippled under an overlay of bad timing, bad politics and bad context. Specifically, the 2016 elections, Trump's disapproving views on the TPP, and the narrow and underperforming US trade policy ecosystem at large were the key factors leading to the US withdrawal from the TPP. In conclusion, the article considers the future of the CPTPP by asking and answering three questions: Will China and other countries join the bloc? Will the CPTPP evolve into a Free Trade Area of the Asia‐Pacific? And, are the CPTPP and the China‐backed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership part of the Asia‐Pacific's constructive response to Trump's protectionism?

Comparing Alternative China and US Arrangements with CPTPP

“…Although the existing research is rich in theoretical evidence, most articles focus on the impact of mega-FTAs such as TPP, TTIP, and RCEP (Capling and Ravengill, 2011;Wilson, 2015;Das, 2015;Capaldo and Izurieta, 2018;Lin et al, 2018;Steiner, 2018;Lee, 2019), and the available literature pays insufficient attention to the CPTPP. Ji and Rana (2019) examine the role of the US in the rise and fall of the TPP, and they lay out informed conjecture about the future of the CPTPP. Corr et al (2019) discuss the potential impact of CPTPP's entry into force on global trade, arguing that this includes not only country-specific implications for select parties, but also trade development implications for non-member countries.…”

Comparing alternative China and the US arrangements with CPTPP

“…China and the US, despite not being officially members of the CPTPP, consistently occupy prominent positions as key downstream and upstream partners for countries participating in the agreement (Chang & Nguyen, 2022). The crucial question hanging over the CPTPP is China's potential accession (Ji & Rana, 2019). In September 2021, China formally applied to join the CPTPP, marking a significant step towards promoting comprehensive cooperation following the signing of the RCEP.…”