2020
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0236386
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Abstract: This paper proposes a dynamic model to describe and forecast the dynamics of the coronavirus disease COVID-19 transmission. The model is based on an approach previously used to describe the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) epidemic. This methodology is used to describe the COVID-19 dynamics in six countries where the pandemic is widely spread, namely China, Italy, Spain, France, Germany, and the USA. For this purpose, data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) are adopted. I… Show more

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Cited by 41 publications
(34 citation statements)
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“…The early daily reproduction number (R t ) of COVID-19 in Wuhan declined from 2.35 (95% CI, 1.15-4.77) [23]. It is still an emerging, rapidly evolving situation [24][25][26][27][28].…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The early daily reproduction number (R t ) of COVID-19 in Wuhan declined from 2.35 (95% CI, 1.15-4.77) [23]. It is still an emerging, rapidly evolving situation [24][25][26][27][28].…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The question motivating this study is whether a plausible model with a limited number of free parameters can reproduce the broad features of the evolution of outbreaks. A related effort, using a discrete-time stochastic model, has been developed by Karlen [1], while Paiva et al test the predictive power of such an approach [2]. Further applications of simple deterministic models to the current pandemic may be found in [3, 4].…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Most of the viruses are that causes these aerosol diseases are having adaptations as gallinaceous (Poultry, birds or animals) later spreading to human; Dunham et al [15], Morens et al [16], Parish et al [17], Mishra et al [6]. Models both physical and mathematical models have been developed for estimating the highly vulnerable area, amplitude, frequency, and intensity daily, monthly and as total against pandemics all over the world to take necessary steps to fight CoVID-19, Chatkraborty et al [18], Paiva et al [19], Baig et al [20], and Mandal et al [21]. The pandemic's mother was the H1N1 flu outbreak during 1918-19 when 50 to 100mi deaths occurred throughout the globe, Moren et al [22].…”
Section: Recent Past Literaturementioning
confidence: 99%