A conceptual and statistical approach for the analysis of climate impact on ground water table fluctuation patterns in cold conditions

Okkonen, Jarkko; Kløve, Bjørn

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.02.015

Cited by 69 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…In order to reduce the calibration parameters, the threshold temperatures Tmin, Tm, Tf and the exponent e were set to constant. The calibration parameters were Tmax, Cs, Cr, Km, Kf, and R and they were constrained between values found in the literature [52,53,[56][57][58] Mean monthly value of snow water equivalent was calculated from the calibrated data during 1971-2000, which represented present data for comparison with the scenario data. Then, using the same parameter sets, temperature and precipitation from the A1B and B1 scenario data during 2021-2100 were used to simulate the snow water equivalent to be used as the initial infiltration rate (UZF1 FINF) value for UZF1 and MODFLOW-2005.…”

Section: Model Calibrations For the Snow And Pet Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Future Climate Change and Baltic Sea Level Rise on Groundwater Recharge, Groundwater Levels, and Surface Leakage in the Hanko Aquifer in Southern Finland

Luoma

Okkonen

2014

Water

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Abstract:The impact of climate change and Baltic Sea level rise on groundwater resources in a shallow, unconfined, low-lying coastal aquifer in Hanko, southern Finland, was assessed using the UZF1 model package coupled with the three-dimensional groundwater flow model MODFLOW to simulate flow from the unsaturated zone through the aquifer. The snow and PET models were used to calculate the surface water availability for infiltration from the precipitation data used in UZF1. Infiltration rate, flow in the unsaturated zone and groundwater recharge were then simulated using UZF1. The simulation data from climate and sea level rise scenarios were compared with present data. The results indicated changes in recharge pattern during 2071-2100, with recharge occurring earlier in winter and early spring. The seasonal impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge were more significant, with surface overflow resulting in flooding during winter and early spring and drought during summer. Rising sea level would cause some parts of the aquifer to be under sea level, compromising groundwater quality due to intrusion of sea water. This, together with increased groundwater recharge, would raise groundwater levels and consequently contribute more surface leakage and potential flooding in the low-lying aquifer. OPEN ACCESSWater 2014, 6 3672

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Section: Model Calibrations For the Snow And Pet Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Future Climate Change and Baltic Sea Level Rise on Groundwater Recharge, Groundwater Levels, and Surface Leakage in the Hanko Aquifer in Southern Finland

Luoma

Okkonen

2014

Water

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“…Apart from the direct analysis of the relationship between groundwater dynamics and climate variability, longterm groundwater data are used to calibrate the parameters of auto-regressive models which are afterwards applied to climate change scenarios (e.g. Okkonen and Klove, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

What can we learn from long-term groundwater data to improve climate change impact studies?

Stoll

Franssen

Barthel

et al. 2011

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Future risks for groundwater resources, due to global change are usually analyzed by driving hydrological models with the outputs of climate models. However, this model chain is subject to considerable uncertainties. Given the high uncertainties it is essential to identify the processes governing the groundwater dynamics, as these processes are likely to affect groundwater resources in the future, too. Information about the dominant mechanisms can be achieved by the analysis of long-term data, which are assumed to provide insight in the reaction of groundwater resources to changing conditions (weather, land use, water demand). Referring to this, a dataset of 30 long-term time series of precipitation dominated groundwater systems in northern Switzerland and southern Germany is collected. In order to receive additional information the analysis of the data is carried out together with hydrological model simulations. High spatio-temporal correlations, even over large distances could be detected and are assumed to be related to large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. As a result it is suggested to prefer innovative weather-type-based downscaling methods to other stochastic downscaling approaches. In addition, with the help of a qualitative procedure to distinguish between meteorological and anthropogenic causes it was possible to identify processes which dominated the groundwater dynamics in the past. It could be shown that besides the meteorological conditions, land use changes, pumping activity and feedback mechanisms governed the groundwater dynamics. Based on these findings, recommendations to improve climate change impact studies are suggested.

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“…In the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of China, groundwater flow may play an important role in permafrost degradation (Cheng and Wu 2007), where degrading permafrost caused regional lowering of the groundwater table, which has resulted in falling lake levels, shrinking wetlands, and degenerating grasslands. Climate change is expected to reduce snow cover and soil frost in boreal environments of Finland, which will increase winter floods and cause the maximum recharge and water levels to occur earlier in the year in shallow unconfined aquifers (Okkonen et al 2009;Okkonen and Kløve 2010).…”

Section: Groundwater Rechargementioning

confidence: 99%

Linking Climate Change and Groundwater

Green

2016

Integrated Groundwater Management

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Projected global change includes groundwater systems, which are linked with changes in climate over space and time. Consequently, global change affects key aspects of subsurface hydrology (including soil water, deeper vadose zone water, and unconfined and confined aquifer waters), surface-groundwater interactions, and water quality. Research and publications addressing projected climate effects on subsurface water are catching up with surface water studies. Even so, technological advances, new insights and understanding are needed regarding terrestrial-subsurface systems, biophysical process interactions, and feedbacks to atmospheric processes. Importantly, groundwater resources need to be assessed in the context of atmospheric CO 2 enrichment, warming trends and associated changes in intensities and frequencies of wet and dry periods, even though projections in space and time are uncertain. Potential feedbacks of groundwater on the global climate system are largely unknown, but may be stronger than previously assumed. Groundwater has been depleted in many regions, but management of subsurface storage remains an important option to meet the combined demands of agriculture, industry (particularly the energy sector), municipal and domestic water supply, and ecosystems. In many regions, groundwater is central to the water-food-energy-climate nexus. Strategic adaptation to global change must include flexible, integrated groundwater management over many decades. Adaptation itself must be adaptive over time. Further research is needed to improve our understanding of climate and groundwater interactions and to guide integrated groundwater management.

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A conceptual and statistical approach for the analysis of climate impact on ground water table fluctuation patterns in cold conditions

Cited by 69 publications

References 26 publications

Impacts of Future Climate Change and Baltic Sea Level Rise on Groundwater Recharge, Groundwater Levels, and Surface Leakage in the Hanko Aquifer in Southern Finland

Impacts of Future Climate Change and Baltic Sea Level Rise on Groundwater Recharge, Groundwater Levels, and Surface Leakage in the Hanko Aquifer in Southern Finland

What can we learn from long-term groundwater data to improve climate change impact studies?

Linking Climate Change and Groundwater

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