A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850–2011

Berge, Travis J.; Jordà, Òscar

doi:10.1007/s13209-012-0095-6

Cited by 19 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…The 1994–2007 expansion was the longest uninterrupted period of growth in Spain since at least 1850, see Berge and Jordá (). Gross domestic products (GDP) grew at an average rate of 3.5% per year, which compares favorably to the EU average of 2.2% over the same period.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Growing Like Spain: 1995–2007

García-Santana

Moral‐Benito

Pijoan-Mas

et al. 2020

Int Economic Review

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Measured total factor productivity (TFP) fell in Spain during the boom years of 1995–2007. Using administrative data from the quasi‐universe of firms, we show that there was an increase in misallocation, which was more severe in sectors where connections with public officials are more important for business success. We write and estimate a simple model of cronyism in which heterogeneous firms invest in political connections. Our quantitative exercise concludes that the institutional decline over this period costed 1.9% growth in TFP per year and a 0.8% annual increase in the resources spent by firms in establishing political connections.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Growing Like Spain: 1995–2007

García-Santana

Moral‐Benito

Pijoan-Mas

et al. 2020

Int Economic Review

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“…Finally, because the analysis of the manufacturing industry cycle has not yet been done. In Spain and in the field as a whole, we highlight works such as that by Bergé and Jordà (2013), Dolado, Sebastián and Vallés (1993), Belaire-Franch and Contreras (2002), Doménech and Gómez (2005) or Doménech, Estrada and Gozález-Calbet (2007). In a study on the variations observed in Spanish business cycles after integration, we find Pérez, Escriche and García (2007) or Gardeazábal and Iglesias (2000).…”

Section: Cyclical Fluctuations In Economic Variables Have Considerablmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characterization of cyclical phases in the manufacturing industry in Spain

Ríos

Torres

Farré

2014

JIEM

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Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to characterize the cyclical phases of the manufacturing industry in Spain and detect which industries have more influence on the Spanish business cycle. We assume that economic growth is a priority; we are going to determine which industries have a more/less appropriate cyclical behavior according this priority. We analyze if the industries with better cyclical behavior are the ones that achieve greater co-movement with the business cycle of the Spanish economy, as this means they have a positive influence on economic activity. Design/methodology: We examine the disaggregated quarterly IPI data of 16 manufacturing industries. Our methodology follows three steps. Firstly, we define cycle turning points; we follow the Harding and Pagan (2002) methodology. Secondly, we characterize the cyclical phases of the manufacturing industries in terms of duration, amplitude, deepness and steepness. We also determine the degree of inter-industrial cyclical synchronization and between industries in the cycle of the Spanish economy. This analysis is performed in two ways. On the one hand, we use the concordance index and the correlation coefficient. On the other hand, we work with indicators based on a consistency table. In the third step, we apply a multi-objective methodology, specifically the compromise programming, to determine which industries have a more/less appropriate cyclical behavior according to the growth priority.

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“…Rule based models are generally easy to understand and implement but suffer from delayed state identification due to the information lag. By contrast MS models are perhaps less intuitive, but produce immediate results (Berge and Jordà, 2013). Under such fully specified models the current state can be judged on the basis of probability, and future states can be forecast.…”

Section: Markov Switching (Ms)mentioning

confidence: 99%