A 6000-year-long paleoseismologic record of earthquakes along the Xorkoli section of the Altyn Tagh fault, China

Yuan, Zhaode; Liu‐Zeng, Jing; Wang, Wei; Weldon, Ray J.; Oskin, M. E.; Shao, Yuan; Li, Zhanfei; Li, Peilin; Wang, Peng; Zhang, Jinyu

doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2018.06.008

Cited by 40 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…Second, the number of paleoearthquakes and the sequence of abnormal paleoearthquakes identified by the offset measurement are the same as the paleoearthquake events revealed by the copper mine trenches. The probability distribution of offset in Figure 11 shown that there are 11 paleoearthquake events, which is the same with the evidence found in the copper mine trenches (Yuan et al 2018a;Yuan 2018b). In addition, the frequency of geomorphic offset observations of paleoearthquake events are inversely proportional to their occurrence.…”

Section: Effectiveness and Reliability Of Paleoearthquake Identificationsupporting

confidence: 77%

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Evaluating the Potentiality of Using Control-free Images from a Mini Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) and Structure-from-Motion (SfM) Photogrammetry to Measure Paleoseismic Offsets

Xue

Xiong

Yuan

et al. 2021

International Journal of Remote Sensing

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Section: Effectiveness and Reliability Of Paleoearthquake Identificationsupporting

confidence: 77%

“…The latest paleoseismic study of the Xorkoli section comes from Yuan et al (2018a), who dug two trenches T1 and T2, namely copper mine trenches (Figure 1(c)). T1 was dug in 2013 and is 17 m long, 3 m wide, and 4.5 m deep.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the Potentiality of Using Control-free Images from a Mini Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) and Structure-from-Motion (SfM) Photogrammetry to Measure Paleoseismic Offsets

Xue

Xiong

Yuan

et al. 2021

International Journal of Remote Sensing

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“…In order to quantify the seismic recurrence behavior of the fault, the coefficient of variation ( Cv ) of the recurrence interval of the paleoearthquakes is calculated (Berryman et al, ; Kagan & Jackson, ; Shao et al, ; Z. D. Yuan et al, ). Cv =

σ_{T} / \overset{T}{true}

, σ T is the standard deviation of the recurrence interval and

\overset{T}{true}

is the average recurrence interval.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Paleoearthquakes and Rupture Behavior of the Lenglongling Fault: Implications for Seismic Hazards of the Northeastern Margin of the Tibetan Plateau

et al. 2019

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The Lenglongling fault (LLLF) is located along the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau and forms a part of the Tianzhu seismic gap along the Qilian‐Haiyuan fault zone. Little is known about the recurrence of large earthquakes along the LLLF nor the associated seismic hazards of the gap. Here the six most recent surface rupturing paleoearthquakes of the LLLF are revealed by measurement of offset landforms, trench excavations, and radiocarbon dating. They are labeled E1–E6 from youngest to oldest, and their timings are constrained to the following time ranges: 636–498 to present, 2951–1155, 4016–3609, 5325–4476, 7284–6690, and 8483–7989 years BP, respectively. The LLLF displays evidence of fresh, recent surface rupture, and the trench sections reveal that the fault ruptured to the ground surface during the most recent event. Based on this fresh surface rupture and historical earthquake records, the latest event E1 was most likely the 1927 M8.0 Gulang earthquake. In conjunction with previous studies, Gulang earthquake might be a complicated event characterized by the combined rupture of both strike‐slip and thrust faults. The average recurrence interval of the six paleoearthquakes is 1643 ± 568 years, and the coefficient of variation is 0.34, indicating that the LLLF follows a quasiperiodic recurrence model. Based on this new understanding of the last event, the LLLF may not be a part of the Tianzhu seismic gap. However, an earthquake of up to MW7.6 could still rupture the gap sections composed of the Jinqianghe, Maomaoshan, and Laohushan faults.

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“…Previous studies have suggested a correlation between slip rate and periodicity (Nicol et al, 2016; Yuan et al, 2018); however, in their global analysis, Williams, Davis, and Goodwin (2019) concluded that most faults rupture regularly regardless of slip rate, tectonic region, or faulting style. Less regular earthquake recurrence on some faults may be a consequence of factors other than the long‐term tectonic loading rate.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Periodicity and Clustering in the Long‐Term Earthquake Record

Griffin

Stirling

Wang

2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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Elastic rebound theory forms the basis of the standard earthquake cycle model and predicts large earthquakes to recur regularly through cycles of strain accumulation and release. Yet few individual earthquake records are sufficiently long to test the theory. Here we characterize the distribution of earthquake interevent times from a global compilation of 80 long-term records. We find that large earthquakes recur more regularly than a random Poisson process on individual fault segments. The majority of Earth's well-studied faults shows weakly periodic and uncorrelated large earthquake recurrence, consistent with the expectations of elastic rebound theory. However, many low activity-rate (annual occurrence rates < 2 × 10 −4) faults show random or clustered earthquake recurrence, which cannot be explained by elastic rebound theory. Plain Language Summary To help society prepare for earthquakes, we use the record of previous earthquakes to forecast the chance of future large earthquakes. A key question is whether large earthquakes on a particular fault recur regularly, randomly, or cluster together in time. Here we compile records from 80 different studies of prehistoric earthquakes. We show that large earthquakes on a particular fault recur more regularly than random, except in regions that experience few earthquakes. This means that for regions that experience many earthquakes, we can forecast future large earthquake occurrence with some degree of skill. In contrast, forecasting large earthquake occurrence in places that experience few earthquakes, and where we expect them least, remains exceptionally difficult.

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A 6000-year-long paleoseismologic record of earthquakes along the Xorkoli section of the Altyn Tagh fault, China

Cited by 40 publications

References 43 publications

Evaluating the Potentiality of Using Control-free Images from a Mini Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) and Structure-from-Motion (SfM) Photogrammetry to Measure Paleoseismic Offsets

Evaluating the Potentiality of Using Control-free Images from a Mini Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) and Structure-from-Motion (SfM) Photogrammetry to Measure Paleoseismic Offsets

Paleoearthquakes and Rupture Behavior of the Lenglongling Fault: Implications for Seismic Hazards of the Northeastern Margin of the Tibetan Plateau

Periodicity and Clustering in the Long‐Term Earthquake Record

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