100‐year mass changes in the Swiss Alps linked to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

Huss, Matthias; Hock, Regine; Bauder, Andreas; Funk, Martin

doi:10.1029/2010gl042616

Cited by 128 publications

(176 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…For the Swiss Alps 1985-1999 the extrapolation results in too little mass loss (Table 1). Direct validation of SRTM-based elevation changes against volume changes obtained from repeated aerial photogrammetry (Bauder et al, 2007;Huss et al, 2010a) for 25 medium to large Swiss glaciers, however, indicates that Paul and Haeberli (2008) overestimate mass loss by about 0.14 m w.e. a −1 .…”

Section: Multiple Regressionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The DEMs were established by digitizing topographical maps and after 1960 by photogrammetrical analysis of aerial photographs. A distributed mass balance model (Hock, 1999;Huss et al, 2008a) is tuned specifically for each glacier to reproduce observed ice volume changes and to optimally match more than 10 000 in-situ point measurements of winter accumulation and annual mass balance (Huss et al, 2010a). The topographical information given by repeated DEMs allows the annual updating of surface elevation and glacier size by interpolation.…”

Section: Mass Balance Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this study mass balance and ice volume change series covering all glaciers in the European Alps are derived for the period 1900-2011 based on a comprehensive set of longterm mass balance data and glacier inventories (Huss et al, 2010a;WGMS, 2008;Paul et al, 2011). Furthermore, future mass balances are modelled for 2011-2100 using Global Circulation Model (GCM) ensembles based on four CO 2 emission scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).…”

Section: Huss: European Glacier Mass Balance 1900-2100mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Long-term mass balances of individual glaciers g are subject to an uncertainty of σ g = ±0.07 m w.e. a −1 (Huss et al, 2010a). This number was estimated by analyzing uncertainties originating from DEM differencing, and also includes the uncertainty due to the density assumption for converting volume change to mass change.…”

Section: Uncertainty Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For consistency, a mean density of 850 kg m −3 (see e.g. Huss et al, 2009; Zemp et al, 2010) was chosen to convert volume change to mass change for all studies.…”

Section: -2008mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Extrapolating glacier mass balance to the mountain-range scale: the European Alps 1900–2100

2012

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Abstract. This study addresses the extrapolation of in-situ glacier mass balance measurements to the mountain-range scale and aims at deriving time series of area-averaged mass balance and ice volume change for all glaciers in the European Alps for the period 1900-2100. Long-term mass balance series for 50 Swiss glaciers based on a combination of field data and modelling, and WGMS data for glaciers in Austria, France and Italy are used. A complete glacier inventory is available for the year 2003. Mass balance extrapolation is performed based on (1) arithmetic averaging, (2) glacier hypsometry, and (3) multiple regression. Given a sufficient number of data series, multiple regression with variables describing glacier geometry performs best in reproducing observed spatial mass balance variability. Future mass changes are calculated by driving a combined model for mass balance and glacier geometry with GCM ensembles based on four emission scenarios. Mean glacier mass balance in the European Alps is −0.31 ± 0.04 m w.e. a −1 in 1900-2011, and −1 m w.e. a −1 over the last decade. Total ice volume change since 1900 is −96 ± 13 km 3 ; annual values vary between −5.9 km 3 (1947) and +3.9 km 3 (1977). Mean mass balances are expected to be around −1.3 m w.e. a −1 by 2050. Model results indicate a glacier area reduction of 4-18 % relative to 2003 for the end of the 21st century.

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Section: Multiple Regressionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Mass Balance Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Huss: European Glacier Mass Balance 1900-2100mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Uncertainty Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For consistency, a mean density of 850 kg m −3 (see e.g. Huss et al, 2009; Zemp et al, 2010) was chosen to convert volume change to mass change for all studies.…”

Section: -2008mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Extrapolating glacier mass balance to the mountain-range scale: the European Alps 1900–2100

2012

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Robust changes and sources of uncertainty in the projected hydrological regimes of Swiss catchments

Addor

Rößler

Köplin

et al. 2014

Water Resources Research

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210

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Projections of discharge are key for future water resources management. These projections are subject to uncertainties, which are difficult to handle in the decision process on adaptation strategies. Uncertainties arise from different sources such as the emission scenarios, the climate models and their postprocessing, the hydrological models, and the natural variability. Here we present a detailed and quantitative uncertainty assessment, based on recent climate scenarios for Switzerland (CH2011 data set) and covering catchments representative for midlatitude alpine areas. This study relies on a particularly wide range of discharge projections resulting from the factorial combination of 3 emission scenarios, 10-20 regional climate models, 2 postprocessing methods, and 3 hydrological models of different complexity. This enabled us to decompose the uncertainty in the ensemble of projections using analyses of variance (ANOVA). We applied the same modeling setup to six catchments to assess the influence of catchment characteristics on the projected streamflow, and focused on changes in the annual discharge cycle. The uncertainties captured by our setup originate mainly from the climate models and natural climate variability, but the choice of emission scenario plays a large role by the end of the 21st century. The contribution of the hydrological models to the projection uncertainty varied strongly with catchment elevation. The discharge changes were compared to the estimated natural decadal variability, which revealed that a climate change signal emerges even under the lowest emission scenario (RCP2.6) by the end of the century. Limiting emissions to RCP2.6 levels would nevertheless reduce the largest regime changes by the end of the century by approximately a factor of two, in comparison to impacts projected for the high emission scenario SRES A2. We finally show that robust regime changes emerge despite the projection uncertainty. These changes are significant and are consistent across a wide range of scenarios and catchments. We propose their identification as a way to aid decision making under uncertainty.

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The value of multiple data set calibration versus model complexity for improving the performance of hydrological models in mountain catchments

Finger

Vis

Huss

et al. 2015

Water Resources Research

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118

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The assessment of snow, glacier, and rainfall runoff contribution to discharge in mountain streams is of major importance for an adequate water resource management. Such contributions can be estimated via hydrological models, provided that the modeling adequately accounts for snow and glacier melt, as well as rainfall runoff. We present a multiple data set calibration approach to estimate runoff composition using hydrological models with three levels of complexity. For this purpose, the code of the conceptual runoff model HBV-light was enhanced to allow calibration and validation of simulations against glacier mass balances, satellite-derived snow cover area and measured discharge. Three levels of complexity of the model were applied to glacierized catchments in Switzerland, ranging from 39 to 103 km 2 . The results indicate that all three observational data sets are reproduced adequately by the model, allowing an accurate estimation of the runoff composition in the three mountain streams. However, calibration against only runoff leads to unrealistic snow and glacier melt rates. Based on these results, we recommend using all three observational data sets in order to constrain model parameters and compute snow, glacier, and rain contributions. Finally, based on the comparison of model performance of different complexities, we postulate that the availability and use of different data sets to calibrate hydrological models might be more important than model complexity to achieve realistic estimations of runoff composition.

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100‐year mass changes in the Swiss Alps linked to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

Cited by 128 publications

References 25 publications

Extrapolating glacier mass balance to the mountain-range scale: the European Alps 1900–2100

Extrapolating glacier mass balance to the mountain-range scale: the European Alps 1900–2100

Robust changes and sources of uncertainty in the projected hydrological regimes of Swiss catchments

The value of multiple data set calibration versus model complexity for improving the performance of hydrological models in mountain catchments

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