The Econometric Analysis of Economic Time Series

On the Relationship between the Public’s Worry about Safety from Burglary and Probabilities of Burglary: Some Evidence from Simultaneous Equation Models

“…To explore this relationship further, we proceeded to estimate a system of twostaged least square (2SLS) regressions. The results of the estimations are reported in Tables II and III. We use the 'general-to-specific' method of model selection was used to arrive at robust sets of estimates (see Hendry and Richard, 1983;Doornik and Hendry, 1995). Thus, some explanatory variables that are consistent with the theory but found to be empirically unviable in the modelling framework, as indicated by t-tests and the Schwartz criteria, were progressively removed from the model, and the model re-estimated.…”

Intertemporal consumer behaviour in developing countries

“…Along the lines of the error correction models formulated Davidson et a/. (1978) and Hendry and Richard (1983), the final model has the correction term estimated from the cointegrating regression and the change in income with zero lag. The latter variable suggesting possible causation between income and consumption at less than one year in keeping with the M P H formulation.…”

Validity and reliability of evaluation procedures in comparative studies of effort prediction models

“…"A model chosen for empirical analysis should be consistent with theory; that is, make good economic sense" (Hendry and Richard 1983). Empirical studies on prediction models would benefit tremendously if we could theoretically explain why and how a novel model B improves on A, in addition to collecting the empirical evidence.…”