Spring migration characteristics of the House Martin, Delichon urbica (Aves: Hirundinidae) in Croatia: A response to climate change?

Summary1. There are wide reports of advances in the timing of spring migration of birds over time and in relation to rising temperatures, though phenological responses vary substantially within and among species. An understanding of the ecological, life-history and geographic variables that predict this intra-and interspecific variation can guide our projections of how populations and species are likely to respond to future climate change. 2. Here, we conduct phylogenetic meta-analyses addressing slope estimates of the timing of avian spring migration regressed on (i) year and (ii) temperature, representing a total of 413 species across five continents. We take into account slope estimation error and examine phylogenetic, ecological and geographic predictors of intra-and interspecific variation. 3. We confirm earlier findings that on average birds have significantly advanced their spring migration time by 2Á1 days per decade and 1Á2 days°C À1 . We find that over time and in response to warmer spring conditions, short-distance migrants have advanced spring migratory phenology by more than long-distance migrants. We also find that larger bodied species show greater advance over time compared to smaller bodied species. Our results did not reveal any evidence that interspecific variation in migration response is predictable on the basis of species' habitat or diet. 4. We detected a substantial phylogenetic signal in migration time in response to both year and temperature, suggesting that some of the shifts in migratory phenological response to climate are predictable on the basis of phylogeny. However, we estimate high levels of species and spatial variance relative to phylogenetic variance, which is consistent with plasticity in response to climate evolving fairly rapidly and being more influenced by adaptation to current local climate than by common descent. 5. On average, avian spring migration times have advanced over time and as spring has become warmer. While we are able to identify predictors that explain some of the true among-species variation in response, substantial intra-and interspecific variation in migratory response remains to be explained.

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Temporal shifts and temperature sensitivity of avian spring migratory phenology: a phylogenetic meta‐analysis

Usui

Butchart

Phillimore

2016

Journal of Animal Ecology

105

130

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Spring migration characteristics of the House Martin, Delichon urbica (Aves: Hirundinidae) in Croatia: A response to climate change?

Abstract: ABSTRACT. Many authors have discussed use of birds (and other organisms) as sensitive biomonitors for climate change.In this paper we investigate the long-term trends in first arrival dates of the long-distance migratory House Martin,

Cited by 1 publication

References 7 publications

Temporal shifts and temperature sensitivity of avian spring migratory phenology: a phylogenetic meta‐analysis

Temporal shifts and temperature sensitivity of avian spring migratory phenology: a phylogenetic meta‐analysis

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