Estimativa de Curva de Phillips para o Brasil com preços desagregados

Schwartzman, Felipe

doi:10.1590/s1413-80502006000100008

Cited by 31 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 8 publications

(12 reference statements)

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“…The results showed that there is a negative and statistically significant relationship between inflation and unemployment, overcoming a common empirical difficulty with the appropriate measure of marginal cost to be included in the Phillips curve [e.g. Schwartzman (2006), Minella et al (2003), Areosa and Medeiros (2007)]. In addition, we found evidence of high real wage rigidity in the recent low inflation period following the edition of the Real plan.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 66%

“…The contribution of the paper is to show that the new Phillips curve fits the Brazilian data very well, as opposed to alternative versions estimated by Schwartzman (2006), Minella et al (2003), Areosa and Medeiros (2007), among others. One difficulty faced by those authors was with the proxy for marginal cost, which shows up with sign opposite to expected or statistically non-significant in the estimation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

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Real wage rigidity and the new Phillips curve: the Brazilian case

Mazali¹,

Divino²

2010

Rev. Bras. Econ.

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The new Keynesian Phillips curve has been criticized for not explaining the short-run inflation-output gap trade-off. Blanchard and Galí (2007) introduced real wage rigidity and derived a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and the gap between actual and efficient output. This paper estimates the new Phillips curve for the Brazilian economy, computes short-run trade-off, analyzes real wage rigidity, and tests theoretical restrictions imposed by the model. The GMM estimations fit the data very well and all theoretical restrictions are satisfied. There is strong real wage rigidity and a high output-gap cost to stabilize inflation in the short run.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 66%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Real wage rigidity and the new Phillips curve: the Brazilian case

Mazali¹,

Divino²

2010

Rev. Bras. Econ.

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“…Portugal et al (1999), Lima (2003), Fasolo & Portugal (2004), Muinhos (2004), Araujo & e Guillén (2004), Alves & Areosa (2005), Correa & Minella (2005), Schwartzman (2006), entre outros, são alguns autores com importantes contribuições nessa área. 2 A Tabela 1 abaixo mostra um breve apanhado de resultados para a economia brasileira.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Inflação versus desemprego: novas evidências para o Brasil

Mendonça¹,

Sachsida²,

Medrano³

2012

Econ. Apl.

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ResumoO objetivo deste artigo é estimar a curva de Phillips novo-Keynesiana para o Brasil. Usamos diferentes proxies para variáveis e com amostras de diferentes períodos para checar a robustez do modelo. Os seguintes resultados merecem destaque. Primeiro, a expectativa inflação e a inflação passada têm relevância na dinâmica da inflação e sua importância das expectativas aumenta a partir de 2002. Segundo, o efeito do desemprego sobre a inflação parece estar localizado apenas no curto prazo. Por fim, parece haver uma quebra estrutural no efeito de uma mudança do câmbio sobre a inflação. Com dados a partir de 2002, o efeito de um choque cambial é negativo. Contudo, com a amostra desde 1995, o efeito de uma desvalorização cambial é positivo sobre a inflação.Palavras-chave: Curva de Phillips; Inflação; Desemprego; Choque cambial; GMM-HAC. AbstractThe goal of this article is to estimate the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Brazil economy. The robustness was checking using not only different proxies but also samples with distinct temporal dimension. The main achievements are the following. Firstly, the inflationary inertia and expectation of inflation are important variables for the dynamic of inflation although the relevance of expectation rise from 2002 onwards. Secondly, the effect of unemployment on inflation seems to be located in the short term. Finally, the relationship between the exchange rate and inflation is marked by a structural break. With data from 2002, the effect of exchange rate shock is negative. But, when one uses data from 1995, the effect on inflation is positive impact.

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“…Schwartzman (2006) estimates a Phillips curve using industrial capacity utilization data to address the fact that the output gap is not observable. Fasolo and Portugal (2004) adapt a NKPC for Brazil based on the NAIRU, emphasizing expectations formation.…”

Section: Related Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Phillips curve in Brazil: an unobserved components approach

Machado

Portugal

2014

Estud. Econ.

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This paper estimates reduced-form Phillips curves for Brazil with a framework of time series with unobserved components, in the spirit of Harvey (2011). However, we allow for expectations to play a key role using data from the Central Bank of Brazil's Focus survey. Besides GDP, we also use industrial capacity utilization rate and IBC-Br index, as measures of economic activity. Our findings support the view that Brazilian inflation targeting has been successful in reducing the variance of both the seasonality and level of the inflation rate, at least until the beginning of the subprime crisis. Furthermore, inflation in Brazil seems to have responded gradually less to measures of economic activity in recent years. This provides some evidence of a flattening of the Phillips curve in Brazil, a trend previously shown by recent studies for other countries. KeywordsNew Keynesian Phillips curve, inflation, unobserved components ResumoEste artigo estima curvas de Phillips para o Brasil com uma abordagem de séries temporais com componentes não observados, seguindo Harvey (2011). Entretanto, é conferido um papel central a expectativas utilizando dados do Boletim Focus do Banco Central do Brasil. Além do PIB, empregamos a taxa de utilização da capacidade industrial e uma série ainda pouco explorada, IBC-Br, como medidas de atividade econômica. Os resultados apoiam a visão que o sistema de metas no Brasil tem sido bem-sucedido em reduzir a variância na sazonalidade e no nível da taxa de inflação, ao menos até o início da crise imobiliária americana. Além disso, a inflação parece ter respondido gradualmente menos a medidas de atividade no período recente. Tal fato constitui uma evidência de achatamento da Curva de Phillips no Brasil, tendência observada em estudos recentes de outros países.♦ We thank seminar participants at the Central Bank of Uruguay for helpful comments.The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Central Bank of Brazil.

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Estimativa de Curva de Phillips para o Brasil com preços desagregados

Cited by 31 publications

References 8 publications

Real wage rigidity and the new Phillips curve: the Brazilian case

Real wage rigidity and the new Phillips curve: the Brazilian case

Inflação versus desemprego: novas evidências para o Brasil

Phillips curve in Brazil: an unobserved components approach

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