The meat market in Brazil: a partial equilibrium model

Abstract

Resumo: Um modelo de equilíbrio parcial para o mercado brasileiro de carnes é ajustado por meio de mínimos quadrados em três estágios. O modelo mostra-se consistente com as observações e pode ser usado para simulações. Neste contexto, comparam-se simulações para o futuro próximo com as projeções da OECD/Aglink. Para ilustrar o emprego do modelo em simulações de políticas investiga-se o efeito de um aumento relativo no preço do milho nos mercados de carne suína e de frango, coeteris paribus.Palavras-Chave: Mercado de carnes, elasticidades, mínimos quadrados em três estágios, sistema de equações simultâneas. JEL: C 32Abstract: A partial equilibrium model for the meat market is fit to Brazilian data by three stages least squares. The model is consistent with the data and may be used for simulation purposes. In this context we compare model simulations for the near future with the OECD/ Aglink outlook. To illustrate using the model for simulations in policy assessments, we investigate the effect of a relative increase in corn price on the poultry and pork markets, coeteris paribus.

The meat market: a dea international perspective and an econometric behavioral model for Brazil

“…We achieved a reasonable degree of agreement for all equations (consumption, supply and exports) for all products which are jointly estimated. Our statistical findings improve previous results obtained by G. S. Souza et al (2008). We consider a joint effect on the endogenous variables resulting from the increase in 10% in the price of corn and a reduction of 10% in the exchange rate to illustrate the use of our model in simulations.…”

“…Finally, in Section 5 we summarize the main findings of our statistical exercise. Table 1 updates the corresponding data showed in G. S. Souza et al (2008). The statistics are informative on the importance of the agribusinesses in total exports.…”

“…Another frequent complain has to do with the over valorization of the Brazilian real relative to the US dollar, generating unfair competition for Brazilian exports. This approach is also an improvement over G. S. Souza et al (2008).…”

“…Researchers and institutions have been showing a growing interest in the use of prediction and of partial equilibrium models for agricultural commodities. Typical examples are provided by Contini et al (2006), Gazzola et al (2006), G. S. Souza et al (2008), Heisey, Wang and Fuglie (2011), Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development/Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (2011), and Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento . The advantage of having a partial equilibrium model available relative to unstructured time series models is the possibility of using it to assess the effects of sector polices through simulation.…”

“…The article proceeds as follows. In Section 2 we update the descriptive results of G. S. Souza et al (2008) on the meat market. In Section 3 we discuss the world market of meat jointly and separately by type of meat, pinpointing the main actors in the market, highlighting in particular the Brazilian performance.…”