Avaliação do governo e "voto econômico"

Abstract

Com base em pesquisas de opinião pública e indicadores econômicos examinam-se as relações entre voto para presidente da República e avaliação de desempenho governamental, e entre esta e a economia, no período 1986-98. A eleição presidencial de 1998 é objeto de uma análise preliminar.

Relevant Factors for the Voting Decision in the 2002 Presidential Election: An Analysis of the ESEB (Brazilian Electoral Study) Data

“…The evaluation of the government's performance had a relevant weight to Serra's vote. In comparison with the weight that other variables seem to have had, however, the evaluation of the sitting government's performance was not as relevant as expected, based on the results of other studies (based on other data and methodologies of analysis; see Carreirão 1999 and2002a). The fact that part of the influence of the evaluation of governmental performance on the voting decision is already "explained" by voters' ideological positions and party sentiments must contribute to this result.…”

When Incompetence Meets Bad Luck: Bolsonaro’s Third Year In the Brazilian Presidency

“…4 Conversely, the success of the Real Plan was pointed as the main factor to explain the landslide victory of, by then, former Finance Minister Fernando Henrique Cardoso in the first round of the 1994 dispute (Mendes & Venturi 1994;Meneguello 1995;Almeida 1996;Kinzo 1996). Those findings were later reinforced by Carreirão (1999) who explored the economic impact of stabilisation plans on the vote, comparing the 1989, 1994 and 1998 presidential elections. Authors also highlighted the relative importance of retrospective evaluations vis-`a-vis ideology (Carreirão 2007), as well as partisanship and corruption (Rennó 2007) Examining the factors that mediate the impact of the economy on the vote in presidential systems, Samuels (2004b) argues that voters are more likely to punish presidents and incumbent candidates when elections are held concurrently with legislative races, which is true in Brazil, and also finds that executives are subject to greater sanctions and rewards than legislators.…”

A eleição presidencial de 2002: a decisão do voto na região da grande São Paulo

“…6 Além da vasta literatura internacional (Key, 1966;Fiorina, 1981;Lewis-Beck, 1988), esta tese aparece, de alguma forma, em muitos textos recentes no Brasil: Lavareda (1989); Muszynski e Mendes (1990); Albuquerque (1992); Figueiredo (1994); Mendes e Venturi (1994); Meneguello (1995); Kinzo (1992); Carreirão (1999Carreirão ( , 2002, entre outros.…”