Modelagem da incidência do dengue na Paraíba, Brasil, por modelos de defasagem distribuída

Souza, Izabel Cristina Alcantara de; Vianna, Rodrigo Pinheiro de Tolêdo; Moraes, Ronei Marcos de

doi:10.1590/s0102-311x2007001100010

Cited by 17 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…The abiotic factor rain [22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29] was important for the production of larvae, pupae and occurrence of dengue. The infestations occurred mainly in the months of highest rainfall levels at the different areas.…”

Section: Rainfallmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The infestations occurred mainly in the months of highest rainfall levels at the different areas. Studies carried out in Vale do Paraíba (SP) 22 , São José do Rio Preto (SP) 23 , in the state of Maranhão (MA) 24 , Vila das Pedrinhas (south coast of the state of São Paulo) 25 , Manaus (AM) 26 , Paraíba (PB) 27 , Uberlândia (MG) 28 and Boa Vista (RR) 29 have shown that, even though there are differences in the rain dynamics in the several regions of Brazil, the highest incidence of the disease and the highest levels of vector infestations coincided with the rainy months, which were also the hottest months of the year in the country 30 .…”

Section: Rainfallmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, a different curve of dengue incidence occurred in each year, and the peaks oscillate between the months of March and May. For this reason, Souza et al 27 stated that the five-month lag corresponds to the duration of the period that is necessary for a change to occur in the trend of the annual curve of dengue incidence, from the beginning of the summer onwards.…”

Section: Lagmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A ocorrência da dengue e variações meteorológicas no Brasil: revisão sistemática

Viana

Ignotti

2013

Rev. bras. epidemiol.

100

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Introduction: Dengue is configures in recent decades as an important cause of morbidity and mortality in Brazil and around the world reaching the tropical and subtropical areas. Objective: To review the scientific literature on the occurrence of dengue in Brazil and its relationship with meteorological variables. Method: A systematic review of studies published in databases (SciELO, PubMed, MEDLINE, Lilacs) using descriptors related to weather variations and dengue fever in Brazil, published between 1991 to 2010. It was selected 31 articles that had the study area nationwide. Results: Most epidemiological studies use ecological design, the studies make use of entomological trapping, are common also series of studies of the disease and spatial analysis. It is evident relationship between dengue incidence with temperature and rainfall, the association is more significant from the second to fourth months of the year. Comparative studies of drought and rain show seasonal behavior of the disease. There are difficulties in establishing unique pattern of seasonality of disease incidence and weather variables for the country. Conclusion: Dengue is strongly related to meteorological variables. The seasonal variation in temperature and rainfall influences the dynamics of the vector and the incidence of the disease throughout the country, regardless of the climate category. The number of cases of classic dengue and of dengue hemorrhagic fever has been increasing on an annual basis. It is estimated that 550 thousand hospitalizations with 20 thousand deaths occur per year among a total of approximately 2.5 billion exposed people 4,5 , and an average of 80 million new cases are reported every year 2 . KeywordsAs a reemerging endemic or pandemic disease, it occurs practically in all the tropical and subtropical regions of the planet 1 . The countries located in these regions are more susceptible due to diverse conditioning factors, such as: global changes, climate changes, weather variability, land use, water storage and irrigation, human population growth and urbanization 6 . Such factors, among others, significantly contribute to the proliferation and development of the Aedes aegypti mosquito -the virus vector 7-9 . Climate changes contribute to increase the number of people exposed to dengue to more than 2 billion and the projections for 2085 suggest that approximately 5 to 6 billion people (50 to 60% of the world's population) will be at risk regarding the disease transmission 10 .The seasonal dynamics of the dengue vector is commonly associated with climate changes and fluctuations 9,11 , which include: temperature increase and variations in rainfall and relative air humidity, conditions that favor a higher number of available breeding sites and, consequently, the development of the vector. The latter presents two distinct stages: aquatic, with the development phases of egg, larva and pupa, and terrestrial, which corresponds to the adult mosquito. Both stages are subject to environmental and climate changes 12,13 ...

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Section: Rainfallmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Rainfallmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Lagmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A ocorrência da dengue e variações meteorológicas no Brasil: revisão sistemática

Viana

Ignotti

2013

Rev. bras. epidemiol.

100

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“…On global scales, several studies have highlighted common climate characteristics of areas where transmission occurs [8],[9],[10]. Meanwhile, longitudinal studies of empirical data have consistently shown that temperature and precipitation correlate with dengue transmission but have not demonstrated consistency with respect to their roles [11],[12],[13],[14],[15],[16],[17],[18],[19],[20],[21],[22]. For example, cumulative monthly rainfall and mean temperature correlated positively with increased dengue transmission on the Andaman Sea side of Southern Thailand [17].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Local and Global Effects of Climate on Dengue Transmission in Puerto Rico

2009

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The four dengue viruses, the agents of dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever in humans, are transmitted predominantly by the mosquito Aedes aegypti. The abundance and the transmission potential of Ae. aegypti are influenced by temperature and precipitation. While there is strong biological evidence for these effects, empirical studies of the relationship between climate and dengue incidence in human populations are potentially confounded by seasonal covariation and spatial heterogeneity. Using 20 years of data and a statistical approach to control for seasonality, we show a positive and statistically significant association between monthly changes in temperature and precipitation and monthly changes in dengue transmission in Puerto Rico. We also found that the strength of this association varies spatially, that this variation is associated with differences in local climate, and that this relationship is consistent with laboratory studies of the impacts of these factors on vector survival and viral replication. These results suggest the importance of temperature and precipitation in the transmission of dengue viruses and suggest a reason for their spatial heterogeneity. Thus, while dengue transmission may have a general system, its manifestation on a local scale may differ from global expectations.

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“…Estudos recentes têm evidenciado uma expressiva subnotificação de casos de dengue no Sistema de Informações de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN), que representa um dos principais problemas enfrentados pela vigilância epidemiológica desse agravo 1,2,3,4,5 .…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Um modelo bayesiano para investigação de sobremortalidade durante epidemia de dengue na Região Metropolitana do Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, 2007-2008

et al. 2013

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O objetivo deste estudo é investigar a ocorrência de sobremortalidade durante a epidemia de dengue ocorrida na Região Metropolitana do Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, entre 2007 e 2008. Para obter a predição dos óbitos desses anos epidêmicos, um modelo dinâmico Poisson foi ajustado aos dados de mortalidade por dengue e por doenças que fazem parte do seu diagnóstico diferencial. Toda a inferência foi realizada sob o paradigma bayesiano. Verificou-se um excesso de mortalidade em março de 2008, em menores de 15 anos de idade. Paralelamente, em março e abril de 2008, houve o maior número de casos notificados de dengue no Estado do Rio de Janeiro. Considerando que o aumento da mortalidade deve ser precedido por um incremento na morbidade, pode-se levantar a hipótese de que houve um excesso de mortalidade por dengue em crianças na epidemia de dengue ocorrida na Região Metropolitana do Rio de Janeiro, em março de 2008.

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Modelagem da incidência do dengue na Paraíba, Brasil, por modelos de defasagem distribuída

Cited by 17 publications

References 7 publications

A ocorrência da dengue e variações meteorológicas no Brasil: revisão sistemática

A ocorrência da dengue e variações meteorológicas no Brasil: revisão sistemática

Local and Global Effects of Climate on Dengue Transmission in Puerto Rico

Um modelo bayesiano para investigação de sobremortalidade durante epidemia de dengue na Região Metropolitana do Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, 2007-2008

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