Introduction: Acute pancreatitis has as its main causes lithiasic biliary disease and alcohol
abuse. Most of the time, the disease shows a self-limiting course, with a rapid
recovery, only with supportive treatment. However, in a significant percentage of
cases, it runs with important local and systemic complications associated with
high mortality rates. Aim: To present the current state of the use of these prognostic factors (predictive
scores) of gravity, as the time of application, complexity and specificity. Method: A non-systematic literature review through 28 papers, with emphasis on 13 articles
published in indexed journals between 2008 and 2013 using Lilacs, Medline, Pubmed.
Results: Several clinical, laboratory analysis, molecular and image variables can predict
the development of severe acute pancreatitis. Some of them by themselves can be
determinant to the progression of the disease to a more severe form, such as
obesity, hematocrit, age and smoking. Hematocrit with a value lower than 44% and
serum urea lower than 20 mg/dl, both at admission, appear as risk factors for
pancreatic necrosis. But the PCR differentiates mild cases of serious ones in the
first 24 h. Multifactorial scores measured on admission and during the first 48 h
of hospitalization have been used in intensive care units, being the most ones
used: Ranson, Apache II, Glasgow, Iget and Saps II. Conclusion: Acute pancreatitis is a disease in which several prognostic factors are employed
being useful in predicting mortality and on the development of the severe form. It
is suggested that the association of a multifactorial score, especially the Saps
II associated with Iget, may increase the prognosis accuracy. However, the
professional's preferences, the experience on the service as well as the available
tools, are factors that have determined the choice of the most suitable predictive
score.