Mapping the likelihood of foot-and-mouth disease introduction along the border between Brazil and Paraguay

Abstract

-The objective of this work was to apply fuzzy majority multicriteria group decision-making to determine risk areas for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) introduction along the border between Brazil and Paraguay. The study was conducted in three municipalities in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, located along the border with Paraguay. Four scenarios were built, applying the following linguistic quantifiers to describe risk factors: few, half, many, and most. The three criteria considered to be most likely to affect the vulnerability to introduction of FMD, according to experts' opinions, were: the introduction of animals in the farm, the distance from the border, and the type of property settlements. The resulting maps show a strong spatial heterogeneity in the risk of FMD introduction. The used methodology brings out a new approach that can be helpful to policy makers in the combat and eradication of FMD.Index terms: Aphthovirus, cloven-footed animals, FMD, multicriteria analysis, risk map. Mapeamento do risco de introdução da febre aftosa na fronteira do Brasil com o ParaguaiResumo -O objetivo deste trabalho foi aplicar a metodologia de análise multicritério difusa para tomada de decisões em grupo, para determinar áreas de risco de introdução da febre aftosa na fronteira do Brasil com o Paraguai. O estudo foi conduzido em três municípios do Estado do Mato Grosso do Sul, localizados na fronteira com o Paraguai. Quatro cenários foram construídos, tendo-se aplicado os seguintes quantificadores linguísticos para descrever os fatores de risco: poucos, metade, muitos e maioria. Os três critérios considerados mais prováveis de influenciar a vulnerabilidade à introdução da febre aftosa, de acordo com a opinião dos especialistas, foram: a introdução de animais na fazenda, a distância da fronteira e a existência do tipo de propriedade assentamentos. Os mapas resultantes mostram uma forte heterogeneidade espacial no risco de introdução da febre aftosa. A metodologia utilizada traz uma nova abordagem que pode auxiliar políticas públicas no combate e na erradicação da febre aftosa.Termos para indexação: Aphtovirus, animais biungulados, FMD, análise multicritério, mapas de risco.

Network Analysis of Cattle Movement in Mato Grosso Do Sul (Brazil) and Implications for Foot-and-Mouth Disease

“…The GTA data are not published and were obtained in 2017 by the Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada-Cepea), directly with the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply (MAPA) 2 , although the data are compiled by the official veterinary service of the state of MS. The database for 2015 comprised 416,743 GTA issued by the MS state.…”

“…Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is considered the most important infectious animal disease in terms of economic impact in the world (1)(2)(3). In addition to causing losses in production, it generates strong reaction from animal health systems and restrictions on animal trade inside and outside the affected country.…”

“…There is no significant movement of animals for service and, when such movement exists, animals generally do not travel long distances nor are they sent to several other properties. Therefore, this purpose was grouped together with exports 2. GTA data is confidential and belongs to the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture Livestock and Food Supply.…”

Characterization of the cattle movement network in the state of Goiás, Brazil

“…In Brazil, the movement of cattle has already been characterized in different regions, such as the Northeast (Silva-Júnior et al, 2017), the South (Felipe et al, 2013 andthe North (Aragão et al, 2018). The dissemination of important diseases with wide territorial distribution has driven these studies (Amaral et al, 2016;Cipullo et al, 2016), mainly in states with expressive herds within Brazilian livestock.…”

“…This information allows the evaluation of herd size and the identification of origin and destination of the animals, in addition to the purpose for which they are destined in the region (VanderWaal et al, 2016;Ferreira et al, 2019). In this way, the vulnerable areas and the main risk factors involved in the dissemination of the different infectious and parasitic diseases of cattle can be defined, thereby contributing to and enhancing the performance of animal health surveillance systems (Amaral et al, 2016).…”