2012
DOI: 10.1590/s0036-46652012000700008
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Abstract: SUMMARYIn this work we propose a mathematical approach to estimate the dengue force of infection, the average age of dengue first infection, the optimum age to vaccinate children against dengue in a routine fashion and the optimum age interval to introduce the dengue vaccine in a mass vaccination campaign. The model is based on previously published models for vaccination against other childhood infections, which resulted in actual vaccination programmes in Brazil. The model was applied for three areas of disti… Show more

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Cited by 9 publications
(9 citation statements)
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References 15 publications
(19 reference statements)
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“…This definition of the lifetime expected risk differs from that used by Hethcote [1] which does not include the survival probability and thus leads to overestimation. Hethcote's definition of the lifetime risk was also used by Massad et al [42] in designing vaccination programs against Rubella, by Zanetta et al [43] in designing optimal vaccination ages for Measles and by Amaku, Coudeville and Massad [44] in designing vaccination programs against Dengue [44]. While in many countries Dengue is primarily considered a childhood disease it does affect people of all ages [11].…”
Section: Lifetime Expected Risk Ementioning
confidence: 99%
“…This definition of the lifetime expected risk differs from that used by Hethcote [1] which does not include the survival probability and thus leads to overestimation. Hethcote's definition of the lifetime risk was also used by Massad et al [42] in designing vaccination programs against Rubella, by Zanetta et al [43] in designing optimal vaccination ages for Measles and by Amaku, Coudeville and Massad [44] in designing vaccination programs against Dengue [44]. While in many countries Dengue is primarily considered a childhood disease it does affect people of all ages [11].…”
Section: Lifetime Expected Risk Ementioning
confidence: 99%
“…The results are compatible with others from the literature. For instance, the authors in reference [9] applied an age dependent seroprevalence model to dengue data of a Northeast Brazil city, founding a similar age range for vaccination (3 to 14 years old). Due to lack of age distribution of dengue cases by serotype for each studied city, our model does not consider the four serotypes.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The authors considered several possible scenarios to evaluate the vaccine efficacy in the presence of two serotypes, resulting in a diagram showing effective vaccination rates versus strains persistence and extinction. Amaku et al (2012) [9] used dengue serological data from Recife City, Brazil, and a system of time-delayed differential equations to estimate the optimal vaccination age; they found that it should be vaccinated children between 3 and 14 years, and 80% of vaccination coverage has to be achieved. On the other hand, an agent-based model was developed by Chao et al [10] to simulate the epidemiology of dengue transmission in a semi-rural area of Thailand; they obtained that, for a fixed number of doses, vaccinating children from 2 to 14 years old would reduce dengue infection in the total population more than covering both children and adults (2 to 46 years old).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…We fitted the data to a function of the form Equation ( 14) with λ(a) = λ 0 (a) to correct for the effect of maternal antibodies. δ was fitted as an additional parameter since values given in the literature vary and depend on the specific serotype considered [29,32,33]. The estimate we obtained for λ 0 (a) is…”
Section: Serotype-specific Forces Of Infection From Serological Datamentioning
confidence: 99%