Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) transmission has been detected in America in 2013 and
recently reached south up to Bolivia, Brazil and Paraguay, bordering countries of
Argentina. The presence of the mosquito Aedes aegypti in half of the
country together with the regional context drove us to make a rapid assessment of
transmission risk. Temperature thresholds for vector breeding and for virus
transmission, together with adult activity from the literature, were mapped on a
monthly basis to estimate risk. Transmission of chikungunya by Ae. aegypti
in the world was seen at monthly mean temperatures from 21-34ºC, with the
majority occurring between 26-28ºC. In Argentina temperatures above 21ºC are observed
since September in the northeast, expanding south until January and retreating back
to the northeast in April. The maximum area under risk encompasses more than half the
country and around 32 million inhabitants. Vector adult activity was registered where
monthly means temperatures exceeded 13ºC, in the northeast all over the year and in
the northern half from September-May. The models herein proposed show that conditions
for transmission are already present. Considering the regional context and the
historic inability to control dengue in the region, chikungunya fever illness seems
unavoidable.