Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and the economy in different regions of Brazil

Abstract

Resumo: Este artigo investiga os impactos socioeconômicos potenciais que as mudanças climáticas projetadas para 2040 podem ter sobre a agricultura e a economia brasileira nas suas diferentes regiões. Para isso, é usado um modelo de EGC inter-regional dinâmico recursivo, calibrado para o ano de 2010. São considerados dois cenários de mudança climática: um Intermediário (RCP4.5) – menos severo – e outro Pessimista (RCP8.5) – mais severo. A principal distinção em relação aos estudos anteriores para o Brasil é o uso de estimativas de perda de área apta para culturas agrícolas, baseadas em projeções para o padrão regional de mudanças climáticas do 5º relatório do IPCC (o mais recente). Os resultados sugerem que as mudanças climáticas deverão provocar retração no PIB real do Brasil em ambos os cenários, mas esta deverá ser mais intensa no cenário Intermediário; sinalizam também que as perdas serão maiores para as famílias mais pobres e para as regiões cuja economia é mais dependente da agricultura, em particular do cultivo da soja, e que o consumo real e o bem-estar das famílias da região Centro-Oeste e parte do Nordeste (onde a cultura da soja é mais representativa) serão mais afetados do que em outras regiões do Brasil.

Regional impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity: evidence on large-scale and family farming in Brazil

“…The negative impacts in maize, cotton, beans, coffee, oranges, and potatoes could generate supply and price instability in the country, with possible effects on the international market, since Brazil ranks among the largest exporters and producers of maize, coffee, orange juice, cotton, and beans, the latter focused on domestic consumption (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2020). These projections are in line with Assad & Pinto (2008), Fernandes et al (2012, Assad et al (2016) and Santos et al (2022), studies carried out with another methodology, but which indicate the same direction of impacts.…”

“…Soybean production would benefit in MT, MS, and the South region; however, in the other regions, including Matopiba, 6 the current frontier of soybean production expansion in Brazil, the impacts would be negative. Zilli et al (2020) and Santos et al (2022) evaluated that in the RCP 4.5 scenario the impacts on soybean production in the Matopiba region would also be negative, evidencing that studies with different methodologies indicate results in line with the one presented here.…”

“…Maize would be the most negatively affected crop, with reduced productivity in all regions and scenarios, followed by the cultivation of beans, which would benefit only in the Southern region in RCP 4.5. Santos et al (2022) using an agroecological zoning model, also indicated that maize would be negatively affected in RCP 4.5 scenario, in most regions, although in RCP 8.5, the impacts would be positive. In relation to coffee, there is the same pattern as for family farming production, with regions in the south becoming more conducive to cultivation.…”

2030 Agenda: discussion on Brazilian priorities facing air pollution and climate change challenges

“…This is not an isolated perception. Santos et al ( 2022 ), working with projections of temperature increase and its impacts on agriculture and the economy of different Brazilian regions, also pointed out that climate change has the potential to cause a significant retraction of GDP, and even deepen existing social inequalities, for impacting mainly the poorest families or those directly dependent on agriculture. Leal Filho et al ( 2018 ) and Costa et al ( 2019 ) also demonstrate the climatic factors contributing to financial losses caused by the increase and distribution of vector-borne diseases and accidents with venomous animals (snake bites), respectively.…”

Understanding the contribution of soybean crop residues inoculated with Bradyrhizobium spp. and not harvested on nitrogen supply in off-season corn cultivars

“…Agricultural production in this region will certainly continue to be an important driver of Brazilian agribusiness in the coming decades. However, climate change has been identified as one of the greatest challenges for Brazilian and global agricultural production in this 21st century [ 2 – 5 ]. Among climate changes, the increase in the average temperature of the planet’s surface, changes in rainfall patterns, and the increase in the frequency of extreme weather events have had serious impacts on the world’s economy and agricultural sector [ 2 , 3 ].…”