Mortality risk during heat waves in the summer 2013-2014 in 18 provinces of Argentina: Ecological study

Chesini, Francisco; Herrera, Natalia; Skansi, María de los Milagros; Morinigo, Carolina González; Fontán, Silvia; Savoy, Francisco; Titto, Ernesto de

doi:10.1590/1413-81232022275.07502021

Cited by 11 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Typically, people with pre-existing health conditions, those that are over 65 or under five, have low incomes, work indoors with poor ventilation in homes or factories, and outdoor workers are more vulnerable to heat stress, heat stroke, or death (Green et al 2019). In particular, previous studies considering some recent (2005-2015) heatwaves in Argentina, documented an increase in death risk for people over 60, particularly those older than 80, and individuals under 15 years of age (Chesini et al 2019(Chesini et al , 2022). An early warning system for heatwaves have been developed in Argentina by the SMN and became operative during the summer of 2018 (Herrera et al 2021).…”

Section: Vulnerability Exposure and Impactsmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…An early warning system for heatwaves have been developed in Argentina by the SMN and became operative during the summer of 2018 (Herrera et al 2021). This system operates during the warm season (October to March) issuing daily alerts for 57 locations of the country, with the aim of enabling both the population and civil protection agencies to take appropriate prevention, mitigation and response measures at each alert level (Chesini et al 2022). If there is a heat risk alert (yellow, orange, or red) for the following 24 h, the Ministry of Security and the Ministry of Health are notified and the Ministry of Health will launch an epidemiological alert and make it public through social media, press agencies, and national media, with recommended actions to the general population and at-risk groups.…”

Section: Vulnerability Exposure and Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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2022 early-summer heatwave in Southern South America: 60 times more likely due to climate change

et al. 2023

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A large area including the central-northern part of Argentina, southern Bolivia, central Chile, and most of Paraguay and Uruguay, experienced record-breaking temperatures during two consecutive heatwaves in late November and early December 2022. During the second heatwave, nine locations in northern Argentina registered their highest maximum temperature of December since at least 1961. Our analysis based on observational and reanalysis datasets indicate that South America, like the rest of the world, has experienced heatwaves increasingly frequently in recent years. The December 2022 heatwave has an estimated return time of 1 in 20 years in the current climate, meaning it has about a 5% chance of happening each year. To estimate how human-caused climate change has influenced the likelihood and intensity of the observed heatwave, we combined climate models with the observation-based data. We found that human-caused climate change made the event about 60 times more likely. A heatwave with a return period of 20 years would be about 1.4 °C less hot in a world without anthropogenic global warming. Heatwaves this early in the summer season pose a substantial risk to human health and are potentially lethal. This risk is aggravated by climate change, but also by other factors such as an aging population, urbanisation and the built environment, and individual behavior and susceptibility to the heat. This highlights the importance of attribution studies in a region already threatened and vulnerable to climate change.

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Section: Vulnerability Exposure and Impactsmentioning

confidence: 96%

Section: Vulnerability Exposure and Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

2022 early-summer heatwave in Southern South America: 60 times more likely due to climate change

et al. 2023

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“…In Latin America, one of the earliest multicountry studies [ 30 ] found a significant association between elevated temperatures and mortality in Santiago, São Paulo, and Mexico City, mostly among older people. Also, in Latin America, [ 31 ] investigated the effects on mortality of the HWs that occurred in the center-north region of Argentina during the warm season of 2013–2014. The authors observed increased death risk in 13 of the 18 provinces analyzed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Twenty-first-century demographic and social inequalities of heat-related deaths in Brazilian urban areas

Monteiro dos Santos,

Libonati,

Garcia

et al. 2024

PLoS ONE

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Population exposure to heat waves (HWs) is increasing worldwide due to climate change, significantly affecting society, including public health. Despite its significant vulnerabilities and limited adaptation resources to rising temperatures, South America, particularly Brazil, lacks research on the health impacts of temperature extremes, especially on the role played by socioeconomic factors in the risk of heat-related illness. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis of the effects of HWs on mortality rates in the 14 most populous urban areas, comprising approximately 35% of the country’s population. Excess mortality during HWs was estimated through the observed-to-expected ratio (O/E) for total deaths during the events identified. Moreover, the interplay of intersectionality and vulnerability to heat considering demographics and socioeconomic heterogeneities, using gender, age, race, and educational level as proxies, as well as the leading causes of heat-related excess death, were assessed. A significant increase in the frequency was observed from the 1970s (0–3 HWs year-1) to the 2010s (3–11 HWs year-1), with higher tendencies in the northern, northeastern, and central-western regions. Over the 2000–2018 period, 48,075 (40,448–55,279) excessive deaths were attributed to the growing number of HWs (>20 times the number of landslides-related deaths for the same period). Nevertheless, our event-based surveillance analysis did not detect the HW-mortality nexus, reinforcing that extreme heat events are a neglected disaster in Brazil. Among the leading causes of death, diseases of the circulatory and respiratory systems and neoplasms were the most frequent. Critical regional differences were observed, which can be linked to the sharp North-South inequalities in terms of socioeconomic and health indicators, such as life expectancy. Higher heat-related excess mortality was observed for low-educational level people, blacks and browns, older adults, and females. Such findings highlight that the strengthening of primary health care combined with reducing socioeconomic, racial, and gender inequalities represents a crucial step to reducing heat-related deaths.

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“…Additionally, the heat waves that swept through England and Wales in the summer of 2022 reported an additional death toll of 3,271 people (ONS 2022). Figure 1 shows the heat wave related additional mortalities that occurred in the past decades in the United Kingdom (ONS 2022), France (Fouillet et al 2006;Hughes et al 2016), India and Pakistan (Hughes et al 2016), Japan (Hughes et al 2016), Australia (Hughes et al 2016), California in the United States (Hughes et al 2016; Edwards et al 2006), Germany (De Bono et al 2004), Spain (De Bono et al 2004), Italy (De Bono et al 2004), Argentina (Chesini et al 2022), and Senegal (Sy et al 2021). These mortality rates are representative numbers as these may have been calculated using different methods in different regions and may not be directly comparable.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Thermal resilience in a renovated nearly zero-energy dwelling during intense heat waves

Amaripadath,

Joshi,

Hamdy

et al. 2023

Journal of Building Performance Simulation

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Overheating risk is expected to rise in dwellings as heat waves continue increasing in intensity and duration. This paper presents a simulation-based study on thermal resilience in a benchmark renovated nearly zero-energy dwelling during intense heat waves in Belgium. Data analysis using thermal simulations of the reference dwelling with and without active cooling was used to assess overheating risk. The analysis indicated that the reference dwelling with active cooling was resilient to heat waves for over 91% of the occupied hours. Furthermore, the existing building-level renovation strategies alone will not be sufficient to mitigate overheating in renovated dwellings and require active cooling. However, active cooling came with an energy penalty of 37.69 kWh/day during the monitored period, and any potential benefits of active cooling should factor in the excess energy use. The presented findings lead to recommendations for future building renovation practices and identified needs for further research.

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Mortality risk during heat waves in the summer 2013-2014 in 18 provinces of Argentina: Ecological study

Cited by 11 publications

References 27 publications

2022 early-summer heatwave in Southern South America: 60 times more likely due to climate change

2022 early-summer heatwave in Southern South America: 60 times more likely due to climate change

Twenty-first-century demographic and social inequalities of heat-related deaths in Brazilian urban areas

Thermal resilience in a renovated nearly zero-energy dwelling during intense heat waves

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