A Intermodalidade no Transporte de Etanol Brasileiro: aplicação de um modelo de equilíbrio parcial

Abstract

Resumo:A busca por fontes de energia renováveis tem aumentado a demanda mundial de etanol. O Brasil é o segundo maior produtor; porém, os custos para transportar a produção são cada vez mais altos. O objetivo do presente artigo é analisar as alternativas de transporte para o etanol frente às condições da logística vigentes no Brasil. Para tanto, propõe-se a aplicação de um modelo de equilíbrio parcial na forma de um Problema de Complementaridade Mista (PCM). Foram avaliados três cenários: o primeiro representa uma perspectiva atual e vigente, em que são praticadas rotas rodoviárias e rodoferroviárias. No Cenário 2 estimou-se uma redução de 15% no valor do frete ferroviário e, no Cenário 3, são incluídos novos projetos dutoviários em curso no País. O Cenário 3 apresentou os melhores volumes de comercialização, com aumento de 0,20% em relação ao cenário-base e um aumento nas divisas de 27 milhões de dólares, indicando que os projetos viários que priorizam a intermodalidade, sobretudo através da dutovia, implicam reduções no custo de transporte e conferem melhoria na eficiência do sistema logístico. Como proposta futura, sugere-se a inclusão do subsídio norte-americano para o etanol, pois tal parâmetro pode alterar a competitividade brasileira.Palavras-chaves: etanol, equilíbrio espacial, logística, simulação. Abstract:The search for renewable energy sources has increased the world demand for ethanol. Brazil is the second largest producer, but the costs to transport this production are increasing. The aim of this paper is to analyze alternatives to transport ethanol in relation to the current logistics conditions in Brazil. To perform this, it is proposed to apply a partial equilibrium model in the form of a Mixed Complementarity Problem (PCM). Three scenarios were evaluated: the first represents the current perspective, road and railroad routes are practiced. In Scenario 2, a 15% reduction in the value of rail freight was estimated, and scenario 3 includes new pipeline projects underway in the country. Scenario 3 presented the best commercialization volumes with a 0.20% increase in relation to the baseline scenario and an increase in foreign exchange of US$ 27 million, indicating that road projects that prioritize intermodality, mainly through pipelines, imply reductions in transportation 1. Data de submissão: 16 de novembro de 2016. Data de aceite: 22 de abril de 2018. costs and an improvement in efficiency of the logistic system. As a future proposal, it is suggested to include the US subsidy for ethanol, since such a parameter could alter Brazilian competitiveness.

Determining regions for installing flex-biomass sugar-ethanol plants: a multicriteria approach for location

“…Both A1 and A2 are located far from seaports and major consumer centers. Therefore, intermodal integration is required, allowing the shift from road transport to a more efficient mode (Coleti & Oliveira, 2019) and less harmful to the environment (Souza et al, 2020). These characteristics can be identified in Figure 6c, as it shows a greater concentration of transfer stations within and near A2.…”

“…Then, a strategic definition of locations for new flex plants based on factors that influence the decision-making process is essential for improving ethanol production in both sugarcane harvest and off-season periods. Aspects related to the distribution and spatialization of agricultural production have an impact on the decision about where to build ethanol plants because they can increase product competitiveness in the market and create a relationship between specialized production and interregional trade (Bargos et al, 2016;Coleti & Oliveira, 2019).…”

Macro-environment analysis of the corn ethanol fuel development in Brazil

“…According Distant from the significant Brazilian ethanol consumption centers and the exportation ports, the distribution of the corn ethanol from central-west to the other Brazilian States and foreign countries can fuel prices might rise [69].…”

Competitiveness drivers for soybean exportation and the fundamental role of the supply chain

“…This scenario reduces competitiveness in the foreign soybean market and other commodities such as ethanol. Although Brazil occupies the position of the second-largest producer in the world, the deficiencies of the logistics system make the product lose competitiveness concerning the major world players (Coleti & Oliveira, 2019).…”