Estimating cassava yield in future IPCC climate scenarios for the Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil

Tironi, Luana Fernandes; Streck, Nereu Augusto; Santos, Amanda Thirza Lima; Freitas, Charles Patrick de Oliveira de; Uhlmann, Lilian Osmari; Júnior, Wolnei Castro de Oliveira; Ferraz, Simone Erotildes Teleginski

doi:10.1590/0103-8478cr20160315

Cited by 7 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 10 publications

(14 reference statements)

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“…However, without correction average RUE values may be better. As stated above, gas exchange is also greatly affected by atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, an aspect that despite its importance is only simulated by a revised SIMANIHOT model ( Tironi et al, 2017b ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling growth, development and yield of cassava: A review

Moreno-Cadena

Hoogenboom

Cock

et al. 2021

Field Crops Research

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The SIMANIHOT model incorporates response to elevated CO 2 levels and has been used to evaluate the impact of climate change on cassava production in the state of Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil ( Tironi et al, 2017b ). Largely due to the increase in temperature, yield was predicted to increase under future climate scenarios.…”

Section: Cassava Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling growth, development and yield of cassava: A review

Moreno-Cadena

Hoogenboom

Cock

et al. 2021

Field Crops Research

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“…These qualities make cassava a crop with a high potential for adaptation to climate change, especially in the foothills, where soils are more fertile than in the plains; however, nowadays in Colombia, foothills are mainly used more for cattle ranching than for crop production (SINCHI (Instituto de Investigaciones Amazónicas) 2016). Existent cassava global adaptation models agree that cassava is a crop that will be adapted in the tropics, subtropics, and highlands in the Andes in the face of climate change (Ceballos et al 2011;Fernandes et al 2017).…”

Section: Current and Plausible Future Impacts Of Climate Change On Staple Cropsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Action needed for staple crops in the Andean-Amazon foothills because of climate change

Beltrán-Tolosa

Navarro-Racines

Pradhan

et al. 2020

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

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The Andean-Amazon foothills region, shaped by Andean moist forests and Amazon forests in southwestern Colombia, Napo province in Ecuador, and Ucayali Province and Napo Basin in Peru, provides local and global ecosystem services as food, water, world climate regulation, water purification, and carbon absorption. However, it faces major problems of land-use change that are exacerbated by climate change that affects these ecosystem services. For instance, conventional agriculture contribute to deforestation, soil degradation, and biodiversity loss, which might be further aggravated by climate changeinduced droughts, thus reducing staple crop production and, consequently, food security. Cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz), maize (Zea mays L.), and plantain (Musa paradisiaca L.) are major staple crops in the region. They play a key role for food security and local farmers' income but are highly exposed to climate risks. This article aims to quantify the level of exposure to climate change (measured as climatic suitability) of these crops in the Andean-Amazon foothills by using the EcoCrop model by the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s under Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios. EcoCrop results showed that, whereas cassava will not lose climatic suitability, maize will lose more than half of its current suitable area, and plantain will gain and lose area, which would affect local food security. Globally, these results are important in highlighting adaptive and cost-effective strategies in agriculture and suggest that agricultural crop diversification may improve resilience by promoting the use of local crops varieties.

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“…timing of flowering and ripening), as well as physiological responses (Moriondo et al, 2015), consequently changing the areas currently suitable for certain crops. Therefore, as shown in studies carried out recently in various locations around the world, one of the impacts of the projected global warming will be a drastic reduction in the areas suitable for cultivating several crops, such as corn (Zea mays L.) (Ramirez-Cabral et al, 2017), cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz) (Tironi et al, 2017), coffee (Coffea arabica L.) (Tavares et al, 2018), grape (Vitis vinifera L.) (Fraga et al, 2019), gladiola (Gladiolus × grandifloras Hort.) (Becker et al, 2021), and olive (Olea europaea L.) (Fraga et al, 2019(Fraga et al, , 2020b, as well as for growing certain forest species (Pirovani et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate projections of chill hours and implications for olive cultivation in Minas Gerais, Brazil

Martins

Pereira

Torres

et al. 2020

Pesq. agropec. bras.

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The objective of this work was to determine the accumulation of chill hours and to define the areas with aptitude for olive (Olea europaea) cultivation in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, as well as to analyze the impacts of climate change projections on chilling-hour requirements and climatic zoning, in two radiative forcing scenarios. The trigonometric method was used to quantify the number of chill hours, considering base temperatures (Tb) of 7.0, 9.5, and 13°C (high, medium, and low chill, respectively), and was applied to present climate (1983-2012) and to two future climate (2041-2070 and 2071-2100) conditions. The present climate data were obtained from 47 conventional weather stations, and the future climate data were obtained from three Earth system models (IPSL-CM5A-LR, MRI-CGCM3, and MIROC5). Future projections point to a decrease in the suitable areas for olive crop cultivation, particularly under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 and for olive cultivars with a high-chilling requirement (Tb=7.0ºC). Of the olive cultivars requiring medium chill (Tb=9.5ºC), only 2.6% (RCP 4.5) and 1.6% (RCP 8.5) will be suitable in the extreme south and in higher altitude areas of Minas Gerais, while, of those requiring low chill (Tb=13ºC), 11.8% (RCP 4.5) and 6.7% (RCP 8.5) will be suitable. If the climate projections become true, the cultivation of olive crops will be viable in the southern region and in higher altitude areas of the state of Minas Gerais.

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Estimating cassava yield in future IPCC climate scenarios for the Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil

Cited by 7 publications

References 10 publications

Modeling growth, development and yield of cassava: A review

Modeling growth, development and yield of cassava: A review

Action needed for staple crops in the Andean-Amazon foothills because of climate change

Climate projections of chill hours and implications for olive cultivation in Minas Gerais, Brazil

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