Avaliação do Desempenho dos Modelos HadGEM2-ES e Eta a partir de Indicadores de Extremos Climáticos de Precipitação para a Bacia Amazônica

Abstract

ResumoO cálculo de indicadores climáticos a partir de dados observados e de modelos climáticos é uma maneira eficiente de identificar possíveis variações climáticas sobre a bacia Amazônica. Embora seja frequente a avaliação de desempenho de modelos climáticos a partir de dados de precipitação e temperatura, a avaliação de suas performances utilizando-se indicadores climáticos ainda é pouco explorada, principalmente para a bacia Amazônica. Dessa forma, o presente trabalho teve como objetivo principal quantificar e avaliar a destreza dos modelos HadGEM2-ES e Eta na representação de oito indicadores climáticos. Os indicadores foram determinados a partir do total diário de precipitação proveniente do Climatate Prediction Center. Para quantificar o desempenho de ambos modelos, foram calculados o viés e o erro médio quadrático. Estes métodos foram aplicados com base na média anual dos indicadores climáticos para o período de 1981 a 1990. Os resultados mostram que o viés dos modelos HadGEM2-ES e Eta apresenta semelhança na maioria dos indicadores climáticos. Em relação ao erro médio quadrático, observou-se que nem todos os indicadores de extremos climáticos baseados em dados de precipitação são bem representados por ambos modelos, porém o Eta apresentou melhor performance em relação ao HadGEM2-ES. Palavras-chave: indicadores de extremos climáticos, bacia Amazônica, precipitação. AbstractThe calculation of climate index from observed data and climate models is an efficient way of identifying possible climatic variations on the Amazon basin. Although it is frequent to evaluate the performance of climate models from precipitation and temperature data, the evaluation of their performances using climate index is still little explored, mainly for the Amazon basin. Thus, the present work main objective was to quantify and evaluate the dexterity of the Had-GEM2-ES and Eta models in the representation of eight climate index. The climate index was determined from the daily precipitation from the Climate Prediction Center. To quantify the performance of both models, the bias and mean square error were calculated. These methods were applied on the basis of the annual average of the climate index for the period 1981 to 1990. The results show that the bias of HadGEM2-ES and Eta models is similar in the most climate index. Regarding the mean square error, it was observed that not all climatic extremes indicators based on precipitation data are well represented by both models, but Eta presented better performance in relation to HadGEM2-ES.

Analysis of climate extremes indices in tropical South America through the RegCM4.7

“…The underestimation of PRCPTOT also can be attributed to the persistent feature of the RCM in underestimating precipitation in AMZ Basin (Fernandez et al, 2006; Seth & Rojas, 2003). The same conclusion can be drawn from the data presented by Brito et al (2019) and Reboita et al (2022). It is also noteworthy that biases on these areas may be due to scares in situ observations (Carvalho, 2020).…”

“…The CPC had a similar behaviour to the precipitation data from the weather stations. Brito et al (2019), Wang et al (2020), Coppola et al (2021) and Huarte et al (2021) also used this dataset in their studies.…”

Regional climate modeling in the Amazon basin to evaluate fire risk

“…The bias pattern of the KBDI and the CDD were overlayed, as both were overestimated in the northeastern basin, and underestimated in the south. Likewise, in an Eta model forced by HadGEM2-ES for the period 1981-1990, CDD was overestimated in the northeastern region of the Amazon basin, and underestimated in the western and southern regions (Brito et al 2019). Additionally, using the Eta model at 40 km resolution, Dereczynski et al (2020) found that CDDs are reduced over the Amazon region.…”

Water balance components and climate extremes over Brazil under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C of global warming scenarios

“…The climate projections regionalized by the Eta-RCM were used to support the Third Brazilian Communication of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (MCTI 2016 ) and have been extensively used in previous studies on the impacts of climate change, mainly in South America (Ferreira and Miranda 2021 , 2020; Brito et al 2019 ; Ferreira et al 2019 ; Tavares et al 2018 ; Arias 2018 ; Debortoli et al 2017 ; Neto et al 2016 ; etc.). In this research, we evaluate simulations of the present climate (1961–2005) and climate projections (2011–2100) of the precipitation and latent heat flux (used to estimate actual evapotranspiration; Allen et al 1998 ).…”