Cem dias de COVID-19 em Pernambuco, Brasil: a epidemiologia em contexto histórico

Abstract

Resumo: A pandemia de COVID-19 iniciou sua linha do tempo em 31 de dezembro de 2019 na China e o SARS-CoV-2 identificado como agente etiológico. O objetivo deste manuscrito é descrever a dinâmica espacial e temporal da epidemia de COVID-19 nos primeiros cem dias, no Estado de Pernambuco, Brasil. Apresentamos a evolução de casos e óbitos segundo semana epidemiológica. Realizamos a análise da série do acumulado diário de casos da COVID-19 confirmados, com projeções para os 15 dias subsequentes, utilizando o aplicativo JoinPoint. Esse programa possibilita identificar pontos de inflexão testando sua significância estatística. Analisamos também a tendência de interiorização da COVID-19 no estado, considerando a distribuição percentual de casos ocorridos no Recife, municípios da Região Metropolitana de Recife e do interior, por conjuntos de três semanas, com construção de mapas temáticos. Os 100 dias da epidemia de COVID-19 resultaram em 52.213 casos e 4.235 óbitos entre 12 de março, correspondendo se 11, até 20 de junho de 2020 (semana epidemiológica 25). O pico da curva epidêmica ocorreu na semana epidemiológica 21 (23 de maio), seguido por desaceleração do número de casos. Detectou-se, inicialmente, a periferização dos casos na capital e região metropolitana, seguida por rápida disseminação para o interior do estado. Houve redução das taxas de crescimento médio diário a partir de abril, mas com patamar de mais de 6.000 casos semanais de COVID-19, em média. Ao final do período, a série de casos do estado indica persistência da circulação e transmissão comunitária do SARS-CoV-2. Finalmente, questiona-se parafraseando Garcia Marques em Cem Anos de Solidão, se estaríamos diante de “uma estiagem ou prenúncio de recrudescimento”.

“New Normal”: The Dynamics of Air Pollutants on the Interruption–Recovery Pattern Related to the COVID-19 Pandemic in Recife, Northeastern Brazil

“…Recife, capital of the state of Pernambuco, is located in the Northeast of Brazil and has an estimated population of 1.6 million inhabitants. The city was one of the first places in Brazil to suffer the devastating effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic, including maximum bed capacity in intensive care units and a high number of deaths, in the first half of 2020 (Souza et al 2020). Due to this rapid spread of the virus, the local government implemented an action plan with restrictive measures that culminated in a lockdown in the period from May 16 to 31, 2020 and from this point, the action plan included the gradual resumption of activities in the municipality (Fig.…”

Coronavirus outbreak from early career psychiatrists' viewpoint: What we have learned so far

“…Later, regulations on activities were enforced and even some cities ordered a lockdown. 11,12 Most psychiatric outpatient services were closed or diminished their activity dramatically. Secondary care services, named Psychosocial Attention Centers, which are a fundamental part of the Psychosocial Attention Network, closed group activities and some of them suspended non-essential activities in most cities throughout the country.…”

“…In mid-April 2020, after one confirmed case in one unit, it was decided that the hospital would dedicate one ward for suspected or confirmed COVID-19 cases and the staff received training in PPE use. 11,12 Social isolation proved crucial in slowing the spread of the infection in Brazil, but as the cases grow exponentially every day in a second and far more severe wave, we fear we have not seen the worst of it and its toll in unassisted psychiatric patients will become unbearable. 15…”

Benchmarking non-pharmacological policies from an efficient administration perspective: a panel DEA approach with strategic insights for the post-pandemic

“…Infections varied considerably depending on the socioeconomic profiles of each municipality and depending on different periods. Several recent regional studies seek to elucidate epidemiological characteristics and patterns of the pandemic (Bezerra et al, 2020;De Magalhães et al, 2020;De Souza et al, 2020;Silva et al, 2020), educational and social impacts (Barbosa et al, 2022;de Souza Braz et al, 2022; dos Santos and de Lima Vieira, 2021) evaluating control measures (Aquino et al, 2020;Marinelli et al, 2020;Souza et al, 2020;Nepomuceno et al, 2022a, b) and hospital efficiency in bed allocation (Nepomuceno et al, 2020a, b). However, to the best of our knowledge, the efficiency analysis of municipal public administrations to support investigations on non-pharmacological best practices in response to the pandemic is a relevant gap in the scientific and technical literature to be addressed.…”