Price movement in the Brazilian land market (1994-2010): an analysis in the light of post-Keynesian theory

Abstract

RESUMO: O presente estudo tem como objetivo avaliar culturas, pastagens e os preços das terras florestais no Brasil, entre 1994 e 2010, à luz da teoria pós-keynesiana. Os resultados fornecem evidência de que a terra, mais do que apenas um simples fator de produção, deve ser concebido como um ativo econômico. Na verdade, o preço da terra rural é determinado não apenas pela rentabilidade esperada decorrente das atividades agrícolas, mas também pelas expectativas dos agentes quanto à sua futura valorização e liquidez em um ambiente econômico permeado de incertezas. Neste contexto, como um objeto de especulação, a terra tem sido particularmente importante como uma reserva de valor. PALAVRAS-CHAVE: preço da terra; pós-keynesiano; economia brasileira.ABSTRACT: The present study aims to evaluate crop, pasture and forest land prices in Brazil, between 1994 and 2010, in the light of Post-Keynesian theory. The results provide evidence that land, more than just a simple factor of production, must be conceived of as an economic asset. In fact, the price of rural land is determined not only by the expected profitability deriving from agricultural activities but also by the agents' expectations about its future appreciation and liquidity in an economic environment permeated with uncertainty. In this context, as an object of speculation, land has been particularly important as a store of value.

Sugarcane expansion and farmland prices in São Paulo State, Brazil

“…As shown in Table 3, a variation of 1% in the IGP-DI is reflected in a variation of, at least, 0.73% in prices for both classes of land. Therefore, one cannot discard the suggestion of several authors, such as [45] and [51], who assigned an important weight to the function of land as a store of value and identified speculation as a key determinant of land prices in Brazil. The rise in inflation, while signaling an environment of greater instability for holders of wealth, nonetheless, increases the demand for assets that serve as stores of value, land being among them.…”

“…In general, several theoretical approaches to the land market have considered the negotiated asset price to be a direct or indirect result of its potential earning stream [29,51]. That is, even considering some assumptions with respect to the overall operation of the economy and the role that land plays in it, it is possible to identify a common element with respect to land price determinants in several theoretical approaches.…”

“…Indeed, several factors are currently considered in the literature to be determinants of land prices: institutional aspects [25], spatial influence [8,16,23,42,57], international investment [2,44], and the rental price of land [24,51], among others factors.…”

“…The observation that in Brazil, during periods of high inflation after the modernization of Brazilian agriculture during the 1960s, land prices lost their relationship to the earnings level of agricultural activity led authors such as Sayad [45] and Telles et al [51], among others, to argue that, in general terms, speculation, in addition to factors associated with agriculture, contributed to explanation of land value changes in the country.…”

Evolução dos preços das terras agrícolas no Paraná entre 1998 e 2015

“…Entretanto, a literatura econômica brasileira tem mostrado que alterações na taxa de juros, inflação, crédito rural, preços das commodities agrícolas e da taxa de câmbio, podem alterar os preços das terras agrícolas (Reydon e Plata, 2006;Telles et al, 2016). Esses estudos demonstram que os preços das terras não são determinados apenas pela rentabilidade decorrente das atividades agrícolas, mas também pelas expectativas dos agentes quanto à sua valorização, sobretudo em um ambiente econômico permeado por incertezas.…”