Uncertainty, conventions and short-term expectations

Abstract

Contrasting different views on the topic, this article examines whether short-term expectations involve uncertainty, arguing in favour of an affirmative answer and thus invalidating any association with the rational or adaptive expectations hypothesis. It is then argued that the presence of uncertainty precludes any tendency towards equilibrium. After the notion of the state of short-term expectations is introduced, this conclusion is affirmed to be valid even if one considers that producers often follow conventional behaviour. Defending the view that uncertainty should be considered as gradable, the article maintains that conventions reduce but do not eliminate uncertainty.