Predicting the geographic distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae) and visceral leishmaniasis in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

Abstract

To understand the geographic distribution of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul (MS), Brazil, both the climatic niches of Lutzomyia longipalpis and VL cases were analysed. Distributional data were obtained from 55 of the 79 counties of MS between 2003-2012. Ecological niche models (ENM) of Lu. longipalpis and VL cases were produced using the maximum entropy algorithm based on eight climatic variables. Lu. longipalpis showed a wide distribution in MS. The highest climatic suitability for Lu. longipalpis was observed in southern MS. Temperature seasonality and annual mean precipitation were the variables that most influenced these models. Two areas of high climatic suitability for the occurrence of VL cases were predicted: one near Aquidauana and another encompassing several municipalities in the southeast region of MS. As expected, a large overlap between the models for Lu. longipalpis and VL cases was detected. Northern and northwestern areas of MS were suitable for the occurrence of cases, but did not show high climatic suitability for Lu. longipalpis . ENM of vectors and human cases provided a greater understanding of the geographic distribution of VL in MS, which can be applied to the development of future surveillance strategies.

Environmental Niche Modelling of Phlebotomine Sand Flies and Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Identifies Lutzomyia intermedia as the Main Vector Species in Southeastern Brazil

“…Aparicio and Bitencourt modelled the risk areas for CL in the municipality of Itapira, São Paulo [34]. Almeida et al evaluated the potential distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis and cases of visceral leishmaniasis in Mato Grosso do Sul [35]. Nieto and collaborators used the modelling to define environmental niches of visceral leishmaniasis in Bahia [36].…”

Ecoepidemiology of American Visceral Leishmaniasis in Tocantins State, Brazil: Factors Associated with the Occurrence and Spreading of the Vector Lutzomyia (Lutzomyia) longipalpis (Lutz & Neiva, 1912) (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae)

“…Lutzomyia (L.) longipalpis is also present in areas of different climatic conditions, such as semiarid areas (in the Caatinga biome), and wetter areas, with high adaptability to different habitats and environmental conditions [57][58][59]. Considering that the state of Tocantins covers two distinct biomes, Cerrado and Amazon, the occurrence of L. (L.) longipalpis in both biomes confirms its generalist behavior, being associated with diverse habitats [14].…”

Shifts in the ecological niche of Lutzomyia peruensis under climate change scenarios in Peru

“…The shift to these regions is supported by the species' limited natural dispersal ability (Fischer et al ., ). These results are consistent with areas of coverage by other species in different regions of the Americas (Young & Duncan, ; Contreras et al ., ; de Almeida et al ., ; Moo‐Llanes et al ., ). For 2050, Lu.…”

“…Ecological niche models have already been generated for some North American (González et al, 2010(González et al, , 2011Moo-Llanes et al, 2013) and South American (Peterson & Shaw, 2003;de Almeida et al, 2013;Carvalho et al, 2015;Sánchez et al, 2015) phlebotomine species. Therefore, and given the importance of Lu.…”